Tropical Development is Possible in the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico Early Next Week

Jonathan Belles
Published: June 17,2016
A cluster of thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave over central America may develop into a tropical depression early next week once it reaches the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has given this disturbed area of low pressure a low chance of development through the first half of next week.

Infrared Satellite, Potential Tropical Development Area

The tropical wave will be entwined in the Central American countries of Nicaragua, Honduras, Belize and Mexico through Saturday as the wave moves west-northwestward. This will limit development through at least Saturday.
(MET 101: What is a Tropical Wave? | Africa's Role)
Sunday or Monday, the tropical wave is forecast to emerge into the Bay of Campeche, where conditions could be a bit more favorable for development.
Interestingly, this system is likely to be pinned in the Bay of Campeche thanks to an expansive area of high pressure aloft, responsible for an impressive Desert Southwest heat wave.
There is a possibility that the most robust portion of this tropical wave could never make it to the Bay of Campeche if the ridge is stronger than currently forecast. This would extinguish any chances of development.
It is very unlikely to ever affect any U.S. interests in the western Gulf of Mexico, instead tracking into eastern Mexico or hovering in the southwest Gulf of Mexico.

Overall weather pattern in play Monday and Tuesday, which is likely to keep whatever develops in the southwest Gulf of Mexico pinned to the south, rather than moving north.

The main impact from this system, therefore, will be an increase in showers and thunderstorms near the Mexican Gulf Coast, as well as the Yucatan peninsula.
We can't rule out some showers and enhanced onshore winds, leading to a risk of rip currents or elevated surf reaching at least the South Texas coast next week, but, it doesn't appear likely to adversely impact any beach plans, for now.
(FORECAST: Cancun, Mexico | Veracruz, Mexico | S. Padre Island, Texas )

June Climatology

Tropical cyclone formation is fairly common in the Bay of Campeche and even over the Yucatán Peninsula during June.

Tropical Cyclone Origin Points

Typically in June, waters continue to warm around the Central America, and wind shear begins to decrease. Both of these factors begin to increase tropical activity.

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