Will the unusually dry northeastern US see more frequent rain in July?

By Kristina Pydynowski, Senior Meteorologist

June 27,2016; 11:43AM,EDT

 

 

Following a rain-free weekend for many in the Northeast, residents may be wondering if this is a sign of things to come for July.
Showers and thunderstorms will return to the region on Monday and Tuesday, when a pair of cold fronts will sweep through and replace the high pressure promoting the dry weather.
Another brief dry spell will follow for later next week before a front threatens to foil some Fourth of July holiday weekend plans.

The pattern of back-and-forth dry and unsettled days is what the Northeast can expect this July, according to AccuWeather Expert Long-Range Forecaster Paul Pastelok.
"The Northeast will have 2- to 3-day dry spells, but followed by a cool front here and there," Pastelok said.
"There will be heat and humidity surges, but no prolonged heat."
Each front will knock back heat and humidity levels, while triggering showers and thunderstorms.
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The dry days will be great for those with outdoor summer plans, such as sport camps, picnics, beach trips or field work.
Dry weather is of greater importance for cleanup efforts in the flood-ravaged communities in West Virginia.
While interfering with the above activities, the occasional stormy days will supply water to crops, lawns and gardens. Rain is needed to prevent more severe drought conditions from developing.
The United States Drought Monitor reported on recently that most of the Northeast, north of the Mason-Dixon line, is abnormally dry. Moderate drought conditions exist in some areas from northern New Jersey to southern Maine.

However, Pastelok said that not every front will guarantee rain in every community.
"The fronts will not always produce [rain] for everywhere, just selected areas that are too hard to pin down," he said.
Pastelok also cautioned that a couple of the fronts will produce severe weather.
Even in the absence of severe thunderstorms, anyone spending time outdoors is reminded to seek shelter as soon as thunder is heard. The danger of being struck by lightning is then present.