Here's my take on the summer of 2016 particularly for the region of the country where I live; the New York City metro-area,based on forecasts from online weather sources like accuweather.com and The Weather Channel's web-site;weather.com:
Despite most of the US roasting with record high temperatures through this last week of June 2016,the Northeastern US has been spared the searing heat mainly due to the jet stream being unusually far to the south for this time of year.Usually by the end of June and going into July,the northern jet stream (which allows intrusions of cool air from Canada to come down over the northern US,which can lead to,for example,to coin a popular term; The Polar Vortex, to come down during the winter months leading to bone-chillingly low temperatures), is situated up over central and northern Canada,allowing warm,tropical air from the Southeastern US and/or tropical regions and/or searingly hot (even record high), temperatures to invade the Northeast from the southwest and southern Plains. Instead,the jet stream has been parked over the Mid-Atlantic for most of June,allowing for the Northeastern US to bask in temps in the 60's,70's and 80's,while the rest of the country has been roasting in triple digit heat,most notably and most recently the Desert Southwest. Now,according to my online weather sources,there will be some factors in play that will allow this pattern to continue,leading to a modestly warm,but in no way too hot summer this year and possibly even the coldest summer on record (at least in terms of over the past 100 or so years),at least in one way of measuring how hot a particular summer is; 90+ degree days. Now,on average,the NYC area, to use one example (since I live in this region, I know from whence I speak),has or records roughly 15 90+ degree days a summer,give or take.Last summer we had a modest # of these such days, mainly in August and September,but this summer,according to my sources,the NYC area will be lucky to have more than one or two 90+ degree days despite early estimates (back in March and April,mind you),that this area will have over 20 such days.There might be some contributing factors for why these early forecasts for the summer of 2016 are off or have since been changed to a forecast for a cooler,more modest summer for this region. First off,back in March or April most meteorologists were hinting at the end of the El Nino that had been in effect for most of 2015 and the first few months of this year,which would then be replaced by La Nina. Apparently,however,back then, they thought that the La Nina would be stronger than they now think.According to most meteorologists La Nina summers are usually very hot for the Northeastern US,but maybe now this will be a very weak La Nina,so that standard is probably not going to apply to this summer.Also,due to this,the Atlantic Hurricane Season is off to an unusually strong,active start with 4 named storms already having developed and it's not even July yet. This might be why such sites as accuweather.com is forecasting a steamy,stormy,wet July for the Northeastern US,which will also mean that temperatures will be held in-check for most of the month,meaning no 90+ days (except now they're calling for lower to middle 90's on July 9 for the NYC metro-area,but otherwise that'll be the only 90+ day all summer according to their 90-day forecast for the NYC area). Even when we have dry-spells,accuweather.com is calling for modestly warm temps in the 80's with a few days where it might get close to 90 and where in a few spots,like New Jersey,it'll get into the 90's). Now,while this might not make the 2016 summer season the coldest on record for this area,if we only get one or two 90+ degree days for this area,however,that'll be the lowest number for a summer season since 2003,when we only had one 90+ day (August 14,2003;the day of the infamous Eastern US and Canada blackout). Now,it is only June 25 and so this summer has only just started,but if these forecasts hold,the 2016 summer season might be a scorcher for most of the US,but for this region,it'll sure rank as one of the more modest,and possibly coolest/coldest in terms of temps. and lack of 90+ days,in quite awhile for the Northeast US.,whether or not it's also the stormiest,soggiest and/or wettest on record.
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