By Kristina Pydynowski, Senior Meteorologist
June 25,2016; 9:15PM,EDT
As the Northeast further dries out amid another rain-free weekend, residents may be wondering if this is a sign of things to come for July.
Showers and thunderstorms will remain absent from the Northeast until the first half of next week, when a pair of cold fronts will sweep through and replace the high pressure promoting the dry weather.
Another brief dry spell will follow for later next week before a front threatens to foil some Fourth of July holiday weekend plans.
The pattern of back-and-forth dry and unsettled days is what the Northeast can expect this July, according to AccuWeather Expert Long-Range Forecaster Paul Pastelok.
"The Northeast will have 2- to 3-day dry spells, but followed by a cool front here and there," Pastelok said.
"There will be heat and humidity surges, but no prolonged heat."
Each front will knock back heat and humidity levels, while triggering showers and thunderstorms.
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The dry days will be great for those with outdoor summer plans, such as sport camps, picnics, beach trips or field work.
Dry weather is of greater importance for cleanup efforts in the flood-ravaged communities in West Virginia.
While interfering with the above activities, the occasional stormy days will supply water to crops, lawns and gardens. Rain is needed to prevent more severe drought conditions from developing.
The United States Drought Monitor reported on Thursday that most of the Northeast, north of the Mason-Dixon line, is abnormally dry. Moderate drought conditions exist in some areas from northern New Jersey to southern Maine.
However, Pastelok said that not every front will guarantee rain in every community.
"The fronts will not always produce [rain] for everywhere, just selected areas that are too hard to pin down," he said.
Pastelok also cautioned that a couple of the fronts will produce severe weather.
Even in the absence of severe thunderstorms, anyone spending time outdoors is reminded to seek shelter as soon as thunder is heard. The danger of being struck by lightning is then present.
Debbie Brunell
so
far not minding this summer one bit, we have been lucky so far in
dodging the heat and humidty, days are warmer then i like in the 80's
but nights have been great low 50's . have not had to run the a/c in the
house, and if this forecast stay true July could run below normal, also
fine by me!
Seth Zoppelt
How hot do you (accuweather) think it will get within the episodes of heat and humidity?
1
Balwinder Singh ·
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Tracylea Byford
It's
been hot here in the center of Vermont since the end of May, with very
few cool days and little rain. Great for swimming, but miserable for
gardening and hiking. Mosquitoes are down, though!
Cody Peaster ·
I
feel like Accuweather is ignoring the southeast as I haven't seen a
single article about it in God knows how long. It hasn't rained here in
Georgia in almost two weeks and with the exception of a few days, it's
mainly been in the mid/upper 90's. When will we get some sort of relief?
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Cory Morrison ·
Works at Fortinos
Why
are people complaining about this summer being cooler than normal, when
June has been near to warmer than normal in practically all of the
Northeast, and July has not even started yet to know for sure if it will
be cooler? Low to mid 80s here (Slightly above normal temps) in the GTA
today with lots of sun. 2nd half of the month has been especially
pleasant. Can't complain here. Some people are so overly-pessimistic and
glass half-empty.
I could understand these complaints at this time last year and for most of the summer of 2014, but so far, this summer has been much better.
I could understand these complaints at this time last year and for most of the summer of 2014, but so far, this summer has been much better.
Richard F. Hommel ·
If
your wondering why Accu was wrong about the NE getting hot for the
summer, it is because they thought La Nina would have taken hold by now.
Instead other factors took over like the positive PDO and negative NAO.
Deepak Lathwal ·
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Cory Morrison ·
Works at Fortinos
If
you're wondering why Accuwx was wrong about the NE getting hot for the
summer, oh wait, they haven't been wrong. June 2016 has been near to
above normal for most of the East, and we have not even gotten through
July/August yet to jump to conclusions.
Steven Jones
Cory
Morrison August and September will be scorching. U.S Open will be
horrible heat and humidity just like last year when the first 10 days of
Sept were 90-98 degrees every day. Not pleasant.
Wayne Langhuber ·
Cory
Morrison That is true. June 1-24 is averaging 2.5+ normal at Harrisburg
Intl and likely to end up 1-2+ which is similar to last year's 1.5+
normal. I don't think Accu Weather was calling for the heat to arrive in
June. I am questioning if they will be correct for July.
Cory Morrison ·
Works at Fortinos
Wayne Langhuber I remember them saying scorching in June in the Mid Atlantic, so they did predict for heat to arrive in June.
Aaron Ginther ·
Well
this prediction for lack of prolonged heat is in stark contrast to what
accuwx was predicting for the summer in the summer outlook. July 2014
had very brief heat surges before a cold front knocked down temperatures
and humidity levels as well. In that case, what's the difference
between July 2014 and July 2016?
Cory Morrison ·
Works at Fortinos
I highly doubt that this July will be like 2014. If anything, I think the cool surges will be more brief this July than in 2014.
Aaron Ginther ·
Cory Morrison
they really could have went more in detail. I mean, of course there
will be "occasional cool fronts" here or there. In a typical July we do
have occasional fronts bring in slightly cooler air and less humidity
for about a day or two, before the heat and humidity quickly returns.
That's what happens when a summer cool front moves through, because
they're so much weaker this time of year. Unless you live in Florida,
who honestly expects humid and 90's for WEEKS on end without an
occasional front ever coming down?
What I was saying was, is what's stopping July 2016 from being like July 2014? Will these fronts only knock temperatures below normal for a day or two before rebounding back to near to above average levels? Or are they saying it will be cooler than average, with only a few brief surges of heat?
What I was saying was, is what's stopping July 2016 from being like July 2014? Will these fronts only knock temperatures below normal for a day or two before rebounding back to near to above average levels? Or are they saying it will be cooler than average, with only a few brief surges of heat?
Wayne Langhuber ·
Aaron Ginther
Soil moisture this year is below last year in Southeast Pa. And last
year July came in normal after a cool start that included precip above
normal. So while the potential is there for a hotter than normal July I
am not sure that happens. Bret Anderson thinks August will be the
warmest compared to normal of the three months of Meterological summer.
Cory Morrison ·
Works at Fortinos
Wayne Langhuber I agree with Brett on that, although July could still be slightly warmer than normal in some Eastern locations.
Michael Capalbo ·
Aaron
Ginther I remember a really big typhoon in the Western Pacific (I
forget the name) curved to western Alaska in the middle of July. That
brought down a big cold front through the Eastern US through the 4th
week of July. So what is on average the hottest week in summer was
actually very nice here in MD. As summer's peak is really maybe 6 weeks,
an event such as that, which is quite unpredictable, can have a huge
effect.
Aaron Ginther ·
Soil
moisture is currently above normal in VA, due to all of the rain we
received the past couple of days. And also we had a very wet May, so
even though June 2016 was overall dry the first 3 weeks of the month,
due to the wet May we weren't in any kind of rainfall defecit. We will
have the chance to dry out next week, so I'm not really worried. Last
July we had well above average soil moisture, and still squeezed out a
near normal July. West Virginia is a lot worse off than we are. Since we
have a developing La Nina, there shouldn't be as many typhoons in the
Pacific as the past few years. Th...See More
Aaron Ginther ·
Soil
moisture is currently above normal in VA, due to all of the rain we
received the past couple of days. And also we had a very wet May, so
even though June 2016 was overall dry the first 3 weeks of the month,
due to the wet May we weren't in any kind of rainfall defecit. We will
have the chance to dry out next week, so I'm not really worried. Last
July we had well above average soil moisture, and still squeezed out a
near normal July. West Virginia is a lot worse off than we are. Since we
have a developing La Nina, there shouldn't be as many typhoons in the
Pacific as the past few years. Th...See More
William Smith ·
Works at South Park
It's
true that it's only June and it's true that we're only a week into the
2016 summer season but if you look at the 90-day forecast for my
area;the NYC metro-area,it's not going to be as hot as they predicted a
month or two ago. Earlier this spring they were forecasting over 20 days
of 90+ for the NYC area and yet according to accuweather's 90-day
forecast we'll only have 2 maybe 3 90+ days all this summer,hardly
exceptional heat for our area.True,according to the 90-day,there will be
some days where it gets pretty darn close to 90 degrees and in spots it
might get past 90 in normally hotter
parts of the NYC area on some days,but not the 20+ of those days that
they forecasted. Now,personally,I don't mind. In fact, I'd love a summer
of just 70's and 80's with the warmest being 86 or 87 degrees. It'll
certainly help us all save on our AC bills this summer,but it's not the
exceptional heat that was forecasted earlier.In fact,I contend that the
summers of the past 15 years have not been as hot as the summers of the
1990's. I remember in the 1990's it would get not only into the 90's
around here frequently,but each summer you can bet on at least one day
of triple-digit heat around here but since 2001,I can count on ONE HAND
the amount of days of 100+ heat around here. Again,not complaining,but
that's just one thing I've observed over the past 15-20 summers now.
Fred Abbey ·
Been
in New Hampshire almost 6 years been very dry little rain makes you
nervious on a natural well. But business is good when weather is great
Andrea Jill
Figures. I plan a vacation for early next week and of course it rains for the first time in days. :(
All those people out west who are looking for a break in the drought
will be glad to hear that I'll be moving out west next year. That will
fix it. I can't ever seem to get away from the damn rain. :(
Steven Jones
If
you are moving to L.A you will love the drier and zero humidity air in
July and August unlike the east which is horrible that time of year.
And we have the best snow in the country come winter in the mountains.
Wayne Langhuber ·
When
is the heat that you were predicting coming Paul? So far June has been
2.5+ Normal and likely to end up a couple of degrees warmer so it hasn't
been a cool summer. However the first 4-6 days of July look below
normal. I am not complaining since I hate high heat/humidity but you did
predict this would come when we reached July. Even Bret's Euro analysis
shows low confidence of heat mid/late July. What went wrong?
Cory Morrison ·
Works at Fortinos
I
could see a few cool days in early July, but it may not necessarily be a
sign of what is to come for the rest of the summer, especially in
August. If analogs prove correctly, August could be quite a scorcher for
some.
Wayne Langhuber ·
Cory
Morrison We are actually running ahead of 90 degree days so far this
year. So far this year 6 Ninety Degree days. (All those days are 90-91).
At this time last year we had 2.On one hand I don't like excessive
heat so this June like last June has been to my liking. I am just
referencing Accu Weather's summer of 2016 forecast with what was
predicted. I think they got June correct (Slightly above normal temps)
but not sure if they are going to get July correct. However most long
range forecasting outlets are saying that the greatest departures from
normal (Temps above normal) will occur the
second half of summer. Well that does include the period from July
10-Aug 5 which is our hottest time of year. I do think we could see a
heat wave possibly as bad as the ones we had in 2010-12. Despite above
average cloudiness the soil moisture is low. So if that Bermuda High
gets cranking it could turn very hot. The real heat in 1998 did not
arrrive until after July 4th and that year along with 1993 which saw
some hot spells in July/Aug are the top analog years.
Cory Morrison ·
Works at Fortinos
Wayne Langhuber we have already had more days above 30C (86F) than in all of 2014.
When
they released their summer outlook they should have done a better job
explaining that there would be no staying power to the heat in the east.
July looks to be a repeat of June where there is a day or two per week
at most of hot weather. I'm not holding my breath that August will be
any different. It's clear that the setup continues to favor the west
for the extended heat and upper level ridges.
Cory Morrison ·
Works at Fortinos
In the GTA, only 1 or 2 days have so far been below normal in the 2nd half of the month.
Cory Morrison ·
Works at Fortinos
Also,
this June has so far been 3.3F above normal in the Chicago area, yet
apparently this June is somehow being lumped in with 2015.
William Smith ·
Works at South Park
It definitely looks like July 2016 will be quite muggy and stormy around the NYC area if the accuweather.com
long-range forecast for July 2016 holds up. It's been flucuating,but
looks like at least a dozen days with rain and chances for rain.
Thunderstorms and chances for thunderstorms around here. I guess we need
it,but not good for outdoor activities next month. They are even
fluctuating between a stormy July Fourth next Monday and a
decent,rain-free one these days.
Mark Wesland ·
Cory
Morrison This June has been great here in the western Great Lakes minus
a couple of days. Their forecast so far has verified well in my area.
The problem arises as we move forward and it looks like a long extended
run of days with below average temperatures coming starting the middle
of next week with maybe a couple getting near average if we are lucky.
The power of the sun can compensate for cooler daytime high temperatures
but the evenings are awful when it cools down into the 60 to 65 range
by 8:00.
Works at Fortinos
Mark
Wesland I do not necessarily see July having any sustained periods of
below normal temperatures (I could see the July 5-12 timeframe averaging
a tiny bit cooler than normal, but otherwise the month could be warm)
especially with the low soil moisture in place. As for next week, so far
it looks like only Tuesday and Wednesday may be below normal at least
where I am.
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