Invest 94L Emerging Into the Southwest Gulf of Mexico; Tropical Development Possible Early Next Week

Jonathan Belles
Published: June 18,2016
A tropical wave we've been tracking for several days is now emerging into the southwest Gulf of Mexico, and may develop into a tropical depression early in the week ahead.
Now dubbed Invest 94L, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) has given this disturbed area of low pressure a moderate chance of development through the first half of next week.
(MORE: What is an Invest?)

Infrared Satellite, Potential Tropical Development Area

The tropical wave is currently flaring scattered thundershowers from Mexico's Yucatan peninsula to parts of Belize, Guatemala and Honduras.
(MET 101: What is a Tropical Wave? | Africa's Role)
With Invest 94L finally back over more water than land later this weekend, conditions could be a bit more favorable for further development.
However, upper-level winds may lead to just enough wind shear (the change in wind speed and/or direction with height) to prevent thunderstorms from clustering, preventing further development.

Current Satellite, Wind Shear

Regardless of development, this system is expected to be pinned in the Bay of Campeche or southwest Gulf of Mexico thanks to an expansive area of high pressure aloft, responsible for an impressive Desert Southwest heat wave.
It is very unlikely to directly affect any U.S. interests in the western Gulf of Mexico, instead tracking into eastern Mexico or hovering in the southwest Gulf of Mexico.

Overall weather pattern in play Monday and Tuesday, which is likely to keep whatever develops in the southwest Gulf of Mexico pinned to the south, rather than moving north.

The main impact from this system, therefore, will be an increase in showers and thunderstorms near the Mexican Gulf Coast, as well as the Yucatan peninsula.
Despite that, there may be some peripheral effects for U.S. interests.
A surge of deep moisture typically occurs on the east and northeast flank of these southwest Gulf of Mexico tropical waves or lows.
Therefore, we can't rule out some locally heavy rain making it to parts of Deep South Texas.
(FORECAST: Cancun, Mexico | Veracruz, Mexico | S. Padre Island, Texas)
Also, an increase in onshore winds, leading to a risk of rip currents and elevated surf should arrive along the South Texas coast as soon as Sunday, continuing into at least Monday.
Don't cancel your beach plans, but just be aware of the rip current threat.
(MORE: The Underrated Danger or Rip Currents)

June Climatology

Tropical cyclone formation is fairly common in the Bay of Campeche and even over the Yucatán Peninsula during June.

Tropical Cyclone Origin Points

Typically in June, waters continue to warm around the Central America, and wind shear begins to decrease. Both of these factors begin to increase tropical activity.

MORE: Satellite Imagery of Infamous Hurricanes