Severe Thunderstorms, Including a Few Tornadoes, Likely Through Monday in the Plains, Midwest, South (FORECAST)

Tom Moore
Published: May 7,2016
Severe thunderstorms will fire up again in parts of the central and southern U.S. on Mother's Day after a respite from severe weather since last Sunday.
A slow-moving closed area of low-pressure aloft in the West is progressing eastward into the Plains, pulling warm, humid air northward. Thunderstorms, some severe with large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes, will flare up, as a result.

Current Radar with Watches and Warnings

(MORE: View National Interactive Radar Map | Difference Between a Watch and a Warning)
Below is our latest thinking on the forecast this weekend and the setup illustrating why conditions will become more favorable for severe storms in the Plains.

Severe Weather Forecast

Sunday

• Forecast: More numerous severe thunderstorms are expected to develop in the afternoon and evening from Nebraska southward through Kansas, Oklahoma and into central and western Texas.
• Threats: Large hail, damaging winds are likely. Some tornadoes are likely.
• Cities: Wichita | Oklahoma City | Wichita Falls

Sunday's Forecast

Monday 

• Forecast: Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to develop from Missouri and eastern Nebraska into eastern Texas and northwestern Louisiana.
• Threats: Large hail, damaging winds and some tornadoes are possible.
• Cities: Kansas City | Little Rock | Dallas

Monday's Forecast

May is the month when tornadoes are most likely in the U.S., according to NOAA.
Severe thunderstorms, with large hail and damaging winds are also plentiful. Given the average position of the jet stream and the typical northward migration of increasingly warm and humid air, locations from the southern Plains into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys are where severe weather is most likely during the month.

Jet stream and upper low bring up moisture for thunderstorm development.

For much of this past week, atmospheric conditions from the southern Plains down into Texas were quite hostile for the development of severe weather.
As an upper-level ridge slides eastward, an area of low pressure aloft and its associated trough, continues to parade the Rockies. At the surface, low pressure formed just east of the Rockies Saturday and a dry line will press eastward into the western High Plains and West Texas. A dry line is a boundary of converging winds that separates dry air from moist air and is often a triggering mechanism for thunderstorms that could turn severe.
This system will move slowly over the weekend so the severe threat will only nudge slightly eastward.

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