Tornadoes, Damaging Winds Expected as Severe Storms Target the South, Ohio Valley (FORECAST)

December 21,2015
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes, damaging wind gusts and large hail are expected to fire up this week from parts of the South to potentially as far north as the Ohio Valley.
Late Tuesday through Wednesday is the period of time with the greatest risk for severe thunderstorm development at the moment. Severe weather expert Dr. Greg Forbes of The Weather Channel says that a tornado outbreak is possible on Wednesday. For this reason, the TOR:CON has been raised to 5 for parts west Tennessee, east Arkansas, Mississippi, Louisiana and east Texas on Wednesday, meaning there's a 50% chance of a tornado within 50 miles of any location in the indicated area.

(Severe Weather Setup Wednesday)

This Christmas week severe weather threat is due to an area of low pressure that will develop near Oklahoma and track towards the Great Lakes, pulling warm and moist air northward from the Gulf of Mexico. That moist air will then be intercepted by a potent upper-level disturbance moving east out of the Rockies and its associated cold front, leading to the formation of rain and thunderstorms. There remains some uncertainty with this setup, particularly with how much unstable air will be available for storms to tap into, which will dictate the magnitude of the severe threat.
With several rounds of rain on the way, flash flooding may also be an increasing threat along parts of the Gulf Coast this week. Flash flood watches have already been issued for portions of the Florida Panhandle, southeastern Alabama and much of Georgia as of Monday afternoon
(MORE: Christmas Week Travel Forecast)

Thunderstorm Forecast

Into Early Tuesday Morning

• Thunderstorms are possible from coastal and east Texas to the western Florida Panhandle.
• An isolated severe thunderstorm or two cannot be ruled out in this area. Heavy rain could contribute to flash flooding as well.

Tuesday - Tuesday Night

• Threat areas: A few severe storms are possible through the day, but the threat really increases during the evening and overnight hours. The area at risk includes eastern and central parts of Texas, southeast Oklahoma, Arkansas and western/southern Louisiana.
• Potential threats: Damaging winds gusts and a few tornadoes are possible. Heavy rain could contribute to flash flooding.
• Cities: Houston | Shreveport, Louisiana | Little Rock, Arkansas

Tuesday's Thunderstorm Threat

Wednesday

• Threat areas: Severe thunderstorms are expected in east Texas, Louisiana, eastern and central Arkansas, Mississippi, the Florida panhandle, Alabama, northwest Georgia, Tennessee, Kentucky, southeast Missouri, extreme southern Illinois and southern Indiana.
• Potential threats: Tornadoes, damaging winds gusts and large hail are possible. Heavy rain could contribute to flash flooding.
• Cities: Houston | Memphis | Paducah, Kentucky | Jackson, Mississippi | Birmingham, Alabama

Wednesday's Thunderstorm Threat

Christmas Eve and Christmas Day

• An isolated severe storm cannot be ruled out from Virginia into parts of the Southeast on Christmas Eve.
• The threat of severe weather should stay low on Christmas Day, however a few severe storms may develop overnight in the south-central states.

Next Weekend

• It is far too early for details, but some computer model forecasts suggest that a vigorous storm system may develop across the eastern third of the country by next weekend.
• The evolution of such a storm system will ultimately determine if another threat of severe thunderstorms develops.
• Currently, the area with the highest risk of severe thunderstorms is from central Texas into Oklahoma, Arkansas, southern Missouri and northwestern Louisiana.

For specific tornado threat forecasts, check out the latest TOR:CON forecasts from severe weather expert, Dr. Greg Forbes.

Current Radar with Watches and Warnings

The radar map(s) above focus on the most likely areas for severe weather and/or flash flooding, if any. Maps update every five minutes; refresh this page for the latest image.
For radar and watch/warning information in other areas of the country, click on the links below.
(MORE: View National Interactive Radar Map | Difference Between a Watch and a Warning)

Monday's Storm Reports

Several tornado warnings were issued on Monday evening in Louisiana. There were reports of trees down near Calcasieu, Louisiana, along with power outages and one person injured in a camping trailer. South of Alexandria, Louisiana near Woodworth, winds during a thunderstorm damaged a car and trees were downed.

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(PHOTO/VIDEO GALLERIES: Severe | Storms)
MORE: Fall Tornado Outbreak of Nov. 21-23, 1992