By Alex Sosnowski, AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist
December 21,2015; 10:38PM,EST
With winter officially beginning Monday evening, when will winter weather arrive and take hold in the central and eastern United States?
Winter officially begins at 11:49 p.m. EST (10:49 p.m. CST) on Dec. 21, 2015.
The lack of persistent cold air and snow in the Central and Eastern states has millions of people wondering if winter weather will ever arrive and stay for a while.
This past November was one of the warmest on record in much of the Central and Eastern states. December is following in the footsteps of November, with temperatures averaging 6 to 12 degrees Fahrenheit above normal in many areas east of the Rockies.
While locked-in cold may still be weeks away, there are signs of more significant and more frequent visits from cold air east of the Rockies in January.
AccuWeather Chief Long-Range Meteorologist Paul Pastelok expects a partial change in the weather pattern to begin shortly after the start of the new year.
"We are not looking at a complete change in the pattern, but rather an easing of the bouts of record-breaking temperatures," Pastelok said.
Pastelok added that an anticipated change in the storm track over the northern Pacific that would translate to periodic southward dips in the jet stream in the central and eastern part of the nation during January.
The jet stream is a high-speed river of air high in the atmosphere, which guides weather systems along and tends to separate cold air to its north and warm air to its south.
The end result is likely to bring more of a balance between days with below-average temperatures and above-average temperatures. While the milder days could still outnumber the cold days, there would be very few or no days with record highs.
By the middle of January, the pattern is likely to deliver multiple nights with lows near zero over the the northern Plains, the teens in parts of the Midwest and below freezing in the major cities of the Interstate-95 corridor of the Northeast.
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The vast majority of the metro areas from Boston to New York City and Washington, D.C., have dipped to or below freezing on only a handful of days so far since the start of autumn. The average low temperature by the end of the third week of December is below freezing in the same swath.
The more frequent bouts of cold air would allow more opportunities for snow in the Central states and perhaps a couple of snow events in parts of the East. Several rounds of lake-effect snow are expected to accompany the cold outbreaks.
"It may take a couple of weeks for the pattern to set up," Pastelok said. "However, some colder air outbreaks along with stormy weather are possible during weeks two and three of January."
While January 2016 may still be more mild-mannered when compared to last January, many people will be reaching for the thermostat more often, when compared to this past November and December. Motorists should also expect to run into some wintry travel episodes farther south in the Midwest, Appalachians and New England, when compared to the past couple of months.
Even in the absence of natural snow, many ski resorts will be able to make snow at night and some northern tier resorts could be able to make snow around the clock at times by the middle of the month.
Anders Updale ·
Could the Northeast have better opportunities for snowstorms in late January and early February?
Aaron Ginther ·
The
support is definitely there to back the forecasts for a pattern shift
in January 2016. It isn't often when you have so much consistency in the
long range models and ensembles in the extended range. The GFS and
European ensembles are hand in hand on this, and even now you can see
the pattern slowly evolving. All of the models show a weakening PV,
given the changes going on in the stratosphere. It all makes sense with
the MJO propogating into phases 7 and 8, higher heights building in the
arctic, ridging retreating into western Canada (signaling a developing
negative EPO).
Cory Morrison ·
Phase 7 in the winter I believe is a warm signal in the East, while phase 8 is a cold one.
Aaron Ginther ·
Phase
7 is more of a transitional phase. It isn't a very cold phase, but not
warm either. Your truly cold phases are 8, 1, and in Jan/Feb phase 2 is
also cold. The warm ones are 3, 4, 5, and 6.. phases 4 and 5 spell
blowtorch.
Deanne L. McKimmey ·
Works at Retired Paramedic
I just hope he is right, because getting through this "holiday week," will be murder for those of us who HATE heat!
Adithya Ramachandran ·
If
the weather was more stable and less humid like the South of France,
I'd feel more comfortable. I'll accept those summers with a welcoming
hug than the pathetic Humidity and air quality of Atlanta summers.
Cory Morrison ·
My
take on January 2016 for quite some time now in Southern Ontario is
that it may be milder than the last 2 January's, but colder than January
2013 and 2012.
Aaron Ginther ·
My gut tells me this January will be more like 2010/1983-ish, 2007, or 1958.
Scott Bryan Kanner ·
SOI is crashing....Snow and cold from mid jan through march...Wanna Bet???
Cory Morrison ·
A winter similar to 2006-07 is looking to be very likely at this point in the East.
Cory Morrison ·
Scott Bryan Kanner I know, but I think this winter having a mild December-cold February like that year is possible.
It is a better analog than 1997-98 at least. However, 1957-58 is also a good analog IMO.
It is a better analog than 1997-98 at least. However, 1957-58 is also a good analog IMO.
Scott Bryan Kanner ·
Cory
Morrison So many variables...those strong el nino years have
similarities...this one is certainly unique..only time will tell...Merry
Xmas to you and your family...
Cory Morrison ·
Scott
Bryan Kanner thanks and to yours as well. The PNA is projected to rise
as well in January, but a big wildcard is if the EPO, NAO, and AO will
plunge. If so, then a pattern flip would be likely. If not, then there
may be a more zonal flow. If the QBO drops (Which I know it eventually
will this winter considering how positive the QBO is right now), then
SSW events are likely which would increase the risks of arctic
outbreaks. Also, if the MJO waves are active or not.
The balmy November-December in the East is not even directly due to El Nino, but that MJO phases 3 and 4 as well as a rising/positive QBO has ensured that the PV has been able to strengthen.
The balmy November-December in the East is not even directly due to El Nino, but that MJO phases 3 and 4 as well as a rising/positive QBO has ensured that the PV has been able to strengthen.
Matthew White
Cory Morrison i agree with you Cory. smile emoticon i know winter's gonna come, i was worried that it was cancelled this year.
Aaron Ginther ·
While
every El Nino is different, there is a tendency for these type of
patterns to evolve as the winter wears on. The Pacific Northwest,
Western Canada, and Alaska tends to warm up and dry out, and the
east/south turns colder and stormier. Almost every El Nino had a warm
December and a cold February.
This El Nino is certainly stronger than 2006-07, I think there were similar drivers in place that year.
This El Nino is certainly stronger than 2006-07, I think there were similar drivers in place that year.
Works at Unemployed
Well,
well, well...about 2/3rds (so far) of people who voted on the poll's
question above sided with me. Of course, this poll is probably just
getting started and, with an abundance of warm weather fans, the
percentages will likely change dramatically later on.
As a cold weather fan, naturally, I voted for preferring a more typical Winter with colder air and snow.
As a cold weather fan, naturally, I voted for preferring a more typical Winter with colder air and snow.
Nick Smith ·
Works at Michelin North America
I'd
take a look at the population distribution of the earth and the trends
of population growth overall, especially in the United States. More
people prefer warmth over the cold, thats just the way it is. It's just a
matter of preference, with so many reason to like either choice. I dont
mind a little bit of nip in the air in the winter time, but prefer
warmth overall.
Matthew White
Same,
i prefer cold and snow in winter, i'm happy to hear that it's coming
and that it's not cancelled. I won't judge the mild weather lovers
though. smile emoticon
I
love all four seasons because I think every season has beauty. Some
people may not like summer and some don't like winter.. but I think if
they slowed down and took it all in, they'd start to realize how
beautiful the season they don't like really is.
"Winter is the time for comfort, for good food and warmth, for the touch of a friendly hand, and for a talk beside the fire: it is the time for home" - Edith Sitwell
"Winter is the time for comfort, for good food and warmth, for the touch of a friendly hand, and for a talk beside the fire: it is the time for home" - Edith Sitwell
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