By:
Bob Henson and Jeff Masters
, 5:29 PM GMT on December 14, 2015
After two weeks of intricate negotiation, world leaders wrapped up the
2015 UN climate summit in Paris with the most important diplomatic
advance on global climate protection in more than two decades. The end
product was the Paris Agreement (see PDF),
a finely tuned document aimed at getting all of the world’s nations on
board with plans to reduce greenhouse gas emissions--even if those plans
are not legally binding.
Figure 1. Executive Secretary of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Christiana Figueres, Secretary General of the United Nations Ban Ki Moon and Foreign Affairs Minister and President-designate of COP21 Laurent Fabius raise hands together after adoption of a historic global warming pact at the COP21 Climate Conference in Le Bourget, north of Paris, on December 12, 2015. Envoys from 195 nations adopted the historic accord. Image credit: Francois Guillot/AFP/Getty Images.
Key parts of the Paris Agreement include:
--New global targets. The Paris Agreement emphasizes the importance of “holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C.” The 1.5°C goal was originally proposed years ago by small island states for which any greater warming could spell extinction. In a surprise move, the U.S., European Union, Brazil, and many other nations joined forces with those small island states to argue on behalf of including the 1.5°C goal. For now, the target is mainly a statement of solidarity and empathy, given that the nation-by-nation plans submitted over the last few months would together limit global warming to perhaps 2.7°C over preindustrial levels at best.
--Regular review and fine-tuning. The targets in each national plan will remain voluntary--largely out of deference to the U.S. Congress, which telegraphed its refusal to approve binding U.S. targets. But the Paris Agreement does include newly binding requirements on how each nation reports progress toward its targets, to help ensure accountability on the world stage. The plans must be reviewed and revised every five years, with an eye toward greater emission cuts over time as renewable technologies are deployed at larger scale.
It appears that the legally binding requirements of the Paris Agreement may not require approval from the U.S. Congress if they are interpreted as extensions of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, which was signed by President George H.W. Bush and approved by the U.S. Senate in 1992.
Was the Paris summit a success?
The international nonprofit group E3G had envisioned three possible outcomes from Paris:
Le Zombie--tactical deal with high potential for collapse
Comme ci, Comme ça’--modest progress with guarantees on finance
Va Va Voom--cements a new enduring regime on climate change
E3G rated the final result as a “low Va Va Voom.” According to E3G, the Paris Agreement “signals the end of business as usual for the energy industries. Future investment will need to be compatible with a zero carbon world.” The agreement is also expected to hasten other activity on the regional, state, and local scales worldwide. For example, mayors from hundreds of cities around the world pledged in Paris to move toward a year-2050 target of 100% renewable energy or an 80% reduction in greenhouse gases.
Will it be enough?
This year’s global temperature is likely to reach 1.0°C above preindustrial levels. It’s been estimated that the known global reserves of fossil fuel are already several times more than enough to push us above the 2.0°C target. In the wake of the Paris Agreement, some activists and policymakers argue that good intentions and voluntary targets could still wilt in the face of economic pressure to use this coal, oil, and gas. The eminent climate scientist James Hansen, now retired from NASA, called the Paris talks “a fraud,” arguing that a fee on emitting carbon remains essential: “As long as fossil fuels appear to be the cheapest fuels out there, they will be continued to be burned.”
There are several ways to use market forces to reduce greenhouse emissions, including a tax or fee on carbon as well as cap-and-trade mechanisms. Many nations, regions, and states have adopted cap-and-trade systems, including the northeast U.S., and Climate Central’s John Upton recently showed how interstate collaboration may help reduce emissions from U.S. power plants under new EPA guidelines. We can expect a further blossoming of such arrangements as nations around the world explore ways to meet their Paris commitments. Yet this won’t be a cake walk, as veteran climate writer and activist Bill McKibben pointed out in a Guardian essay on Sunday, using the apt analogy of a marathon: “Our only hope is to decisively pick up the pace...We know where we’re going now; no one can doubt that the fossil fuel age has finally begun to wane, and that the sun is now shining on, well, solar. But the question, the only important question, is: how fast.”
Figure 2. Typhoon Melor as seen by Japan’s Himawari satellite at 0237Z Monday, December 14 (9:37 pm EST December 13), 2015. At the time, Melor was a Category 3 storm with 125 mph winds, and the southern eyewall of the storm was over northern Samar Island. Image credit: NOAA/RAMMB.
Yet another Category 4 in the Pacific: Melor churns through Philippines
Typhoon Melor powered into the Central Philippines on Sunday night, December 13 (U.S. EST time) as a Category 3 storm with 125 mph winds. This was slightly below its peak intensity as a Category 4 storm with 135 mph winds at 8 am EST Sunday, when Melor became the record-smashing 26th Northern Hemisphere Category 4 or stronger storm this year (previous record: just 18 such storms in 1997 and 2004, according to WU contributor Dr. Phil Klotzbach.) Melor is also the 20th typhoon of 2015, which is the most typhoons in the Northwest Pacific since 2004 (which also had 20 typhoons.) Melor is the strongest December typhoon to affect the Philippines since Typhoon Bopha of 2012, which hit Mindanao Island on December 3 as a Category 5 storm with 175 mph winds.
Damage is likely to be heavy from Melor, since the southern eyewall of the storm tracked along the north coast of Samar Island for several hours when the typhoon was at Category 3 strength. The Philippine Meteorological agency, PAGASA, warned that Melor could bring a storm surge as high as 4 meters to the coast, and rainfall amounts of 10+ inches were expected over a wide swath of the Philippines along Melor’s path. As it weakens, Melor is expected to make a final Philippines landfall on Mindoro Island on Tuesday morning local time.
Figure 3. A view of the powerful extratropical cyclone over the Bering Sea from Japan’s Himawari satellite at 0500Z Sunday, December 13, 2015. Image credit: NOAA/RAMMB.
Aleutians pummeled by fierce cyclone in Bering Sea
Melor wasn’t the only cyclone thrashing around the North Pacific this past weekend. An extremely strong non-tropical low developed south of the Aleutian Islands and raced north, deepening to a central pressure estimated by the Ocean Prediction Center at 06Z Sunday as 924 millibars. According to WU weather historian Christopher Burt, this ranks with the Bering Sea storm from November 7-8, 2014, and another one from October 25, 1977, as the strongest extratropical lows observed in the North Pacific since reliable records began in late 1969. Both of those two previous systems developed from the remnant circulations of typhoons, a common source of Aleutian storms that was not in play last weekend. A drifting buoy northeast of Adak--the westernmost town in the United States--reported a pressure of 929 mb, and sustained winds at Adak reportedly reached at least 94 mph. If confirmed, these would be the highest sustained winds on record for Alaska.
We’ll be back by Wednesday at the latest with a report from the American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting in San Francisco.
Bob Henson (Paris Agreement, Bering Sea storm), Jeff Masters (Typhoon Melor)
Figure 1. Executive Secretary of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Christiana Figueres, Secretary General of the United Nations Ban Ki Moon and Foreign Affairs Minister and President-designate of COP21 Laurent Fabius raise hands together after adoption of a historic global warming pact at the COP21 Climate Conference in Le Bourget, north of Paris, on December 12, 2015. Envoys from 195 nations adopted the historic accord. Image credit: Francois Guillot/AFP/Getty Images.
Key parts of the Paris Agreement include:
--New global targets. The Paris Agreement emphasizes the importance of “holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C.” The 1.5°C goal was originally proposed years ago by small island states for which any greater warming could spell extinction. In a surprise move, the U.S., European Union, Brazil, and many other nations joined forces with those small island states to argue on behalf of including the 1.5°C goal. For now, the target is mainly a statement of solidarity and empathy, given that the nation-by-nation plans submitted over the last few months would together limit global warming to perhaps 2.7°C over preindustrial levels at best.
--Regular review and fine-tuning. The targets in each national plan will remain voluntary--largely out of deference to the U.S. Congress, which telegraphed its refusal to approve binding U.S. targets. But the Paris Agreement does include newly binding requirements on how each nation reports progress toward its targets, to help ensure accountability on the world stage. The plans must be reviewed and revised every five years, with an eye toward greater emission cuts over time as renewable technologies are deployed at larger scale.
It appears that the legally binding requirements of the Paris Agreement may not require approval from the U.S. Congress if they are interpreted as extensions of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, which was signed by President George H.W. Bush and approved by the U.S. Senate in 1992.
Was the Paris summit a success?
The international nonprofit group E3G had envisioned three possible outcomes from Paris:
Le Zombie--tactical deal with high potential for collapse
Comme ci, Comme ça’--modest progress with guarantees on finance
Va Va Voom--cements a new enduring regime on climate change
E3G rated the final result as a “low Va Va Voom.” According to E3G, the Paris Agreement “signals the end of business as usual for the energy industries. Future investment will need to be compatible with a zero carbon world.” The agreement is also expected to hasten other activity on the regional, state, and local scales worldwide. For example, mayors from hundreds of cities around the world pledged in Paris to move toward a year-2050 target of 100% renewable energy or an 80% reduction in greenhouse gases.
Will it be enough?
This year’s global temperature is likely to reach 1.0°C above preindustrial levels. It’s been estimated that the known global reserves of fossil fuel are already several times more than enough to push us above the 2.0°C target. In the wake of the Paris Agreement, some activists and policymakers argue that good intentions and voluntary targets could still wilt in the face of economic pressure to use this coal, oil, and gas. The eminent climate scientist James Hansen, now retired from NASA, called the Paris talks “a fraud,” arguing that a fee on emitting carbon remains essential: “As long as fossil fuels appear to be the cheapest fuels out there, they will be continued to be burned.”
There are several ways to use market forces to reduce greenhouse emissions, including a tax or fee on carbon as well as cap-and-trade mechanisms. Many nations, regions, and states have adopted cap-and-trade systems, including the northeast U.S., and Climate Central’s John Upton recently showed how interstate collaboration may help reduce emissions from U.S. power plants under new EPA guidelines. We can expect a further blossoming of such arrangements as nations around the world explore ways to meet their Paris commitments. Yet this won’t be a cake walk, as veteran climate writer and activist Bill McKibben pointed out in a Guardian essay on Sunday, using the apt analogy of a marathon: “Our only hope is to decisively pick up the pace...We know where we’re going now; no one can doubt that the fossil fuel age has finally begun to wane, and that the sun is now shining on, well, solar. But the question, the only important question, is: how fast.”
Figure 2. Typhoon Melor as seen by Japan’s Himawari satellite at 0237Z Monday, December 14 (9:37 pm EST December 13), 2015. At the time, Melor was a Category 3 storm with 125 mph winds, and the southern eyewall of the storm was over northern Samar Island. Image credit: NOAA/RAMMB.
Yet another Category 4 in the Pacific: Melor churns through Philippines
Typhoon Melor powered into the Central Philippines on Sunday night, December 13 (U.S. EST time) as a Category 3 storm with 125 mph winds. This was slightly below its peak intensity as a Category 4 storm with 135 mph winds at 8 am EST Sunday, when Melor became the record-smashing 26th Northern Hemisphere Category 4 or stronger storm this year (previous record: just 18 such storms in 1997 and 2004, according to WU contributor Dr. Phil Klotzbach.) Melor is also the 20th typhoon of 2015, which is the most typhoons in the Northwest Pacific since 2004 (which also had 20 typhoons.) Melor is the strongest December typhoon to affect the Philippines since Typhoon Bopha of 2012, which hit Mindanao Island on December 3 as a Category 5 storm with 175 mph winds.
Damage is likely to be heavy from Melor, since the southern eyewall of the storm tracked along the north coast of Samar Island for several hours when the typhoon was at Category 3 strength. The Philippine Meteorological agency, PAGASA, warned that Melor could bring a storm surge as high as 4 meters to the coast, and rainfall amounts of 10+ inches were expected over a wide swath of the Philippines along Melor’s path. As it weakens, Melor is expected to make a final Philippines landfall on Mindoro Island on Tuesday morning local time.
Figure 3. A view of the powerful extratropical cyclone over the Bering Sea from Japan’s Himawari satellite at 0500Z Sunday, December 13, 2015. Image credit: NOAA/RAMMB.
Aleutians pummeled by fierce cyclone in Bering Sea
Melor wasn’t the only cyclone thrashing around the North Pacific this past weekend. An extremely strong non-tropical low developed south of the Aleutian Islands and raced north, deepening to a central pressure estimated by the Ocean Prediction Center at 06Z Sunday as 924 millibars. According to WU weather historian Christopher Burt, this ranks with the Bering Sea storm from November 7-8, 2014, and another one from October 25, 1977, as the strongest extratropical lows observed in the North Pacific since reliable records began in late 1969. Both of those two previous systems developed from the remnant circulations of typhoons, a common source of Aleutian storms that was not in play last weekend. A drifting buoy northeast of Adak--the westernmost town in the United States--reported a pressure of 929 mb, and sustained winds at Adak reportedly reached at least 94 mph. If confirmed, these would be the highest sustained winds on record for Alaska.
We’ll be back by Wednesday at the latest with a report from the American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting in San Francisco.
Bob Henson (Paris Agreement, Bering Sea storm), Jeff Masters (Typhoon Melor)
Quoting 323. 882MB: Now naming until next season. |
324. Patrap
3:40 AM GMT on December 16, 2015|
Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion 000 AXNT20 KNHC 152357 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST TUE DEC 15 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC.  ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE ITCZ BEGINS AT THE PRIME MERIDIAN NEAR 1N AND CONTINUES ALONG 3N18W 1N30W 2N46W ACROSS THE EQUATOR AND INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 50W. CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 25W-39W AND FROM THE ITCZ ACROSS THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 31W-36W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A COLD FRONT IN THE NW ATLC WITH A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS AT 15/2100 UTC ACROSS FLORIDA FROM JACKSONVILLE TO CEDAR KEY INTO THE GULF TO NEAR 27N87W WHERE IT BECOMES A WARM FRONT ALONG 27N88W TO 27N92W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 25N TO THE WARM FRONT WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE STATIONARY FRONT TO INLAND OVER FLORIDA. VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF GIVING THE REST OF THE BASIN FAIR WEATHER THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL LIFT N TONIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE COAST OF TEXAS WED MORNING. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM NEAR PENSACOLA FLORIDA TO VERACRUZ MEXICO THU MORNING. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA TO OVER CUBA TO OVER THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS. A SECOND UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM VENEZUELA OVER THE E CARIBBEAN JUST W OF THE LESSER ANTILLES COVERING THE FAR E CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED JUST N OF CUBA AND EXTENDS AN UPPER TROUGH S TO E PANAMA. THE UPPER TROUGH IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 13N- 19N BETWEEN 72W-79W INCLUDING SW HAITI...JAMAICA...AND E CUBA. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS EVENING. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH WED. ...HISPANIOLA... THE UPPER LOW JUST N OF E CUBA IS GIVING SW HAITI SCATTERED SHOWERS WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE ISLAND IS UNDER MOSTLY FAIR SKIES. THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUE NIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING E OVER THE N PORTION OF THE ISLAND WED. THIS WILL KEEP MOISTURE HIGH THROUGH WED AND COULD CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE ISLAND THROUGH MID WEEK. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AT 15/2100 UTC EXTENDS THROUGH 32N75W TO 30N79W THEN BECOMES STATIONARY ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR JACKSONVILLE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC IS ANCHORED NEAR 26N63W WITH A CUT OFF THE UPPER LOW CENTERED JUST N OF E CUBA NEAR 22N75W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 26N60W. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E ATLC IS SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N27W TO 26N30W WHERE IT DISSIPATES ALONG 19N43W TO 18N58W. A SURFACE TROUGH TRAILS THE FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH 32N34W ALONG 26N41W TO 24N53W. W ATLC STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN STATIONARY ALONG ROUGHLY 30N TONIGHT BEFORE LIFTING N OF THE AREA EARLY WED LEAVING WEAK HIGH PRES IN PLACE NE OF THE BAHAMAS. THE HIGH PRES WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST THU. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW |
323. 882MB
3:38 AM GMT on December 16, 2015
Quoting 322. Grothar: Lol, I was wondering where you were at? What should we name this BLOB? |
322. Grothar
3:35 AM GMT on December 16, 2015
Quoting 316. 882MB: I heard "BLOB"  |
321. MaineGuy
3:21 AM GMT on December 16, 2015
Quoting 296. Bern99: Well now just hold on there a second, partner. Rep. Lamar Smith says: "Atmospheric satellite data, considered by many to be the most objective, has clearly showed no warming for the past two decades." Are you suggesting he's wrong? :) |
320. 882MB
3:04 AM GMT on December 16, 2015
Quoting 319. Astrometeor: If we where in October or November who knows, lol. Lenny came into my mind also while watching this loop. |
319. Astrometeor
2:57 AM GMT on December 16, 2015
Quoting 317. 882MB: Lenny part 2? |
318. calkevin77
2:54 AM GMT on December 16, 2015
Quoting 247. Sfloridacat5: It was in the mid 70s and muggy here in Austin today. One day its chilly, the next its warm. Needless to say, a week's worth of laundry these days include both long sleeves and jeans along with shorts and tank tops. There is an advancing cold front about 3 miles west of here and our temps tonight are supposed to drop back down in the 40s tonight. I just saw Nea's 6-10 day temp forecast, so it looks like its not time to put away the t-shirts just yet. |
317. 882MB
2:54 AM GMT on December 16, 2015|
Melor has been dropping a whole lot of rain on the Philippines, what a
slow moving booger. 97W is right on its heels, but looks like it may
stay south of where Melor made landfall. Melor  97W 
|
316. 882MB
2:53 AM GMT on December 16, 2015
Funny little blob in the Caribbean. 
|
314. washingtonian115
2:48 AM GMT on December 16, 2015| I see the blog is turning nasty with political comments which means I will be out of sight. |
313. Patrap
2:40 AM GMT on December 16, 2015|
Same last name as I, no relation though. Climate change is a drag (on Earth), study says By Michael Pearson, CNN Updated 12:28 PM ET, Tue December 15, 2015 (CNN)File this under Things You May Not Have Known: Climate change, scientists say, is slowing Earth's rotation ever so slightly. It's not a new idea. In fact, scientists have been looking at the relationship among melting glaciers, rising sea levels and a slowing Earth for years. But it's getting a new airing after publication of a paper matching the mean rise in sea levels during the 20th century to the slowdown in Earth's spin. It turns out that water melting off glaciers and moving away from the poles acts much like an ice skater's outstretched arms, making every rotation that much slower, said Jerry Mitrovica, a Harvard University professor of geophysics and lead author of the paper. How much slower? In Earth's case, one millisecond a day. That's a thousandth of a second. It may not seem like much, but that slowing matches up nicely with the effect of average global sea level increases of 1 millimeter to 1.5 millimeters during the 20th century, Mitrovica said. That's the total amount glaciologists have estimated after looking at what's happened to all the world's glaciers, he said. So it's really more about confirmation of the effects of climate change than anything else, he said. His research is a response to a 2002 paper by oceanographer Walter Munk, who found discrepancies between the rate of slowing in Earth's rotation and prevailing theories about average sea level increases over the century. Mitrovica said Munk used an inaccurate model for how the last ice age 5,000 years ago continues to affect Earth's rotation. By using a newer model, and cross-referencing rotation information with ancient astronomical observations, Mitrovica was able to show that rotation changes and estimated sea level changes fit precisely. The rotation from melting glaciers is on top of slowing caused by tidal forces, winds and other impacts, which adds about 1.4 milliseconds to a day over the course of a century, according to the U.S. Naval Observatory. Other things can also effect Earth's rotation. A 2011 earthquake in Japan is said to have shortened the day by 1.8 millionth of a second, according to NASA. While the research seems esoteric and the implications of a more slowly spinning planet won't amount to much, practically speaking, Mitrovica says, it does provide another tool to help assess how much melting is going on. "It gives you one, simple, unpolluted measurement of what the Earth's ice sheets and glaciers are doing," he said. Obama: Climate agreement 'best chance we have' to save the planet |
311. Dakster
2:38 AM GMT on December 16, 2015| You are in Baltimore... Stay safe out there still applies!!! How was the sailing weather? |
309. Dakster
2:36 AM GMT on December 16, 2015|
BB - Btw, Happy Hanukah! Stay safe out there. Anyhow, just stopped in for a bit to see what was going on weatherwise in the world. And say hello. Can't wait for the cold front to hit South Florida. Supposed to be in the 50s this weekend. (low temp). |
307. Dakster
2:29 AM GMT on December 16, 2015|
Makes sense BB... BTW, I like the new avatar picture of you and your
best friend. (A dog is man's best friend, not being weird or sarcastic) |
305. Dakster
2:26 AM GMT on December 16, 2015|
Back in MIA... Snowing on and off back home though. It is actually
cooling down up there... I bet another round of sub zero is coming. |
304. PedleyCA
2:21 AM GMT on December 16, 2015| Heat Wave Up there Dakster? Well it is above Freezing.... (now) |
303. Dakster
2:20 AM GMT on December 16, 2015|
DId you see that climate change is causing the earth to slow down (spin)? http://www.cnn.com/2015/12/15/world/climate-chang e-earth-rotation-feat/index.html Link Sorry, Patrap, it's from CNN - but I found it interesting. Wonder if the science behind the article is correct. |
299. Patrap
1:53 AM GMT on December 16, 2015|
That never happens in my Home. We don't do stupid. |
298. Dakster
1:46 AM GMT on December 16, 2015
Quoting 288. Patrap: When do you watch fox then? |
297. MaxWeather
1:32 AM GMT on December 16, 2015
296. Bern99
1:26 AM GMT on December 16, 2015
Quoting 276. NativeSun: Well, I believe the current consensus among climate scientists is that we're responsible for approximately 110% of the warming over the last 4 decades. It's > 100% because some of our pollutants - specifically aerosols - cool the planet. In fact, we used to pump out so much of the stuff that some scientists back in the early 70s wondered whether they might overwhelm the greenhouse warming and trigger an ice age (thus certain sensationalist magazine covers about the impending ice age). The climate scientists quickly worked out that wasn't going to happen, though. As for satellites - you do know they don't measure temperature, right? The satellite sensors that are used to derive the RSS & UAH temperature series are measuring brightness in particular microwave bands associated with oxygen molecules. It's possible to infer temperature from this brightness, but you have to very carefully correct for orbital variations, time of day, atmospheric conditions, and the fact that you're using multiple sensors on multiple satellites. Even then, the satellites give a 'temperature' that's measured somewhere between 1 and 8 kilometres above ground level (IIRC, might go up higher). So you then have to correct from that measurement at altitude to infer a ground level or sea level temperature, which is of course strongly affected by the uncertainty in altitude of measurement. Of course the microwaves you're measuring aren't all emitted at one specific altitude, so you have to take that into account and correct for it as well. The debate over what these corrections should be is vigorous and ongoing, evidenced by the number of major revisions to the satellite datasets over the last 30 years. It's also why the satellite data is considered to be the least reliable in terms of determining what the actual temperature at the earth's surface is, although it's extremely useful in providing a global view of temperature distribution. |
295. Patrap
1:03 AM GMT on December 16, 2015|
Denial posts are a nod to their own ignorance. When has anyone ever seen Dr. M or others like Dr. Rood even mention anything they come here with as "new",or eye opening? Because it ain't. Anyone paying anyone for BS is suspect at the source. BS may sell to those who seek it for comfort, ideology back slapping may werk for those who find comfort in numbers,but here, we do science. Science is the way learned Men and Women do things in the real World. Ted Cruz's lil committee showed us what He is made of.... all of the above. |
294. ColoradoBob1
12:53 AM GMT on December 16, 2015|
The ‘autumn-blooming’ cherry blossoms are still going strong on the National Mall Here we are in mid-December — the sun is shining, the birds are singing and… the cherry blossoms are still blooming. Link Will senator "snowball" throw cherry blossoms on the senate floor in December to advance his hoax theory ? Open minded thinkers want to know. |
293. Naga5000
12:43 AM GMT on December 16, 2015
Quoting 276. NativeSun: Look, I'm going to level with you. Joe Bastardi is not a climate scientist, neither are his buddies. In fact, not a single one of his friends has a single peer reviewed journal article regarding climate change. Joe D'Aleo runs a well known climate conspiracy website called Icecap.us. I can tell you, you are paying them $20 a month to lie to you and fill your head with nonsense regarding climate change. Unfortunately, you bring it here and it gets knocked down with little to no response from you because you merely parrot whatever you read that day. Let's just pretend for a second that their ideas have any merit, why wouldn't they be adding them to the discourse?Any finding with sound evidence that contradicts over 100 years of scientific discourse would be major news, it would revolutionize our understanding of the world and climate. Now, why do you think they don't publish? Why do you think this is for the "premium" users only? Why would they charge for such revelatory information? Take your time, I want you to think about this. |
292. Patrap
12:42 AM GMT on December 16, 2015|
2015 will be the year that beat out 2014 as the warmest ever recorded. I'm detecting a trend. |
291. ColoradoBob1
12:40 AM GMT on December 16, 2015
Quoting 284. wartsttocs: It's the same old can of spring loaded peanut brittle snakes . The real laugh out loud thing is the claim of "Open Mindedness". And wrapping one's self in the "The School of Athens". Raphael 's great masterwork in the Vatican of the great thinkers of classical Greece.  Then one of the "Open Minded" leaders brings a snowball onto the floor of the Senate . One wonders if he brings cherry blossoms there this week. "It's all cycles". |
290. BobHenson (Admin)
12:37 AM GMT on December 16, 2015
Quoting 262. CaneFreeCR: Indeed, I drew on Webberweather's maps for this post back in mid-November: Will El Niño Bring a December Warm Wave to North America? The combination of seasonal models (CFSv2) and El Niño analogs has done remarkably well with this month's blast of N.A. warmth! |
289. MaxWeather
12:37 AM GMT on December 16, 2015|
HURRICANE SCORECARD 2015 Over 30 winners Expect the 3rd winner list for the Atlantic Season shortly. New blog in the works |
288. Patrap
12:32 AM GMT on December 16, 2015| I reserve the right to watch Looney Tunes only on a Saturday morning, so no CNN for me tonight. |
286. leef23sk
12:27 AM GMT on December 16, 2015|
Patrap, HHJ, and Pipejazz- definitely check out Anoushka Shankar, Ravi
Shankar's daughter from another mother-she is a wonderful sitarist in
her own right! Weather here in Mandarin, Fl. at 7:30, 70 degrees and
moisture heavy, but not raining! |
285. Climate175
12:27 AM GMT on December 16, 2015
It is now looking like there is a possibility of not only highs in the
60s and maybe even getting into the 70s for next week into Christmas,
but the chance for thunderstorms.
|
284. wartsttocs
12:11 AM GMT on December 16, 2015
Quoting 279. ColoradoBob1: The suspense is killing me. |
283. ColoradoBob1
12:04 AM GMT on December 16, 2015|
CBS News - NO snow in Buffalo, this is the latest with No Snow event since 1899. The ‘autumn-blooming’ cherry blossoms are still going strong on the National Mall Here we are in mid-December — the sun is shining, the birds are singing and… the cherry blossoms are still blooming. Link |
282. PedleyCA
11:17 PM GMT on December 15, 2015
 56.7F/13.72C here this afternoon, just want some 70's |
281. guygee
11:06 PM GMT on December 15, 2015
Quoting 196. Patrap:One of my Indian friends once told me that there had been three phases in the entire history of Indian music, until Ravi Shankar initiated the fourth phase. To turn a phrase, worldwide, "Ravi Shankar was more popular than the Beatles". Iss Jiva ko Mukti Prapt ho, Ravi. |
280. PlazaRed
11:04 PM GMT on December 15, 2015|
Midnight chiming over here in our bit of the world. Time to bale out again as we head into Wednesday. Here's a tune centred on Paris from the past that was by a man who is no longer with us but is called. Parisienne Walkways:- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d9oouMDQAIk Hasta Man-yar-na. |
279. ColoradoBob1
10:58 PM GMT on December 15, 2015|
the temp rise in the last 100yrs. is not only from burning fossil fuels, but other variables that occur with climate change. Name 3 of these variables . |
278. ColoradoBob1
10:44 PM GMT on December 15, 2015SAN JOSE, Calif.
Scientists have gleaned fresh insight into the havoc wreaked by a microscopic culprit that has disrupted marine life this year along the Pacific Coast, not only tainting Northern California’s delicious supply of Dungeness crab but also sickening or killing hundreds of sea lions.
It’s long been known that a tiny toxin called domoic acid, produced by marine algae known as pseudo-nitzschia, kills brain cells. But new research by a University of California, Santa Cruz, team illuminates the relationship between damage to the brain and sea lions’ profound loss of memory and navigational skills. In recent years, biologists have increasingly observed a high number of California sea lions struggle onto beaches, weak, confused and trembling.
328. Grothar
4:38 AM GMT on December 16, 2015