Tornadoes, Intense Thunderstorms Expected in Midwest, Plains, South

Jon Erdman
Published: April 8,2015



 
A multi-day severe weather outbreak, including tornadoes, will ramp up Wednesday through Thursday in parts of the South and Midwest. Some severe weather may continue into Friday along the East Coast and South. This has the potential to be the most widespread severe weather event so far this spring.
(MORE: Dr. Greg Forbes' TOR:CON Tornado Threat Forecasts)

The meteorological ingredients that may be in play for the potential mid-week severe weather outbreak.

Meteorologists use pattern recognition, or the general forecast orientation of upper-air and surface weather features, to help identify the potential for high-impact weather events  – severe weather outbreaks, winter storms, cold air outbreaks and heat waves –  several days out.
The pattern this week has some similarities to a classic heartland spring severe weather outbreak.
First, a bullish southward plunge of the jet stream, or trough, will swing out of the western U.S. into the Plains and Midwest.
In the atmosphere's lowest levels, progressively warmer and more humid air has arrived from the Gulf of Mexico into parts of the Plains and Mississippi Valley.
With that vigorous jet stream overlapping warm, humid air and surface features – such as a drylines that divide High Plains dry air from more humid air to the east – and a warm front helping to lift the unstable air, the stage is set for a potential outbreak of severe thunderstorms with large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes.
A few severe storms fired up Tuesday in advance of the main upper-level jet stream dip. Baseball-sized hail was reported in Kentucky and a pair of brief tornadoes were reported in Kansas.
(MORE: Hail, Flooding Hit Midwest on Tuesday)
For now, here is our latest severe threat forecast.

• Wednesday: Scattered severe storms in the central and southern Plains. Some supercells with very large hail and tornadoes possible. The threat of severe storms may extend as far east as the mid-Mississippi Valley and into parts of the Ohio Valley, with large hail and damaging winds possible in those areas. 
• Peak tornado threat areas: Dr. Forbes' TOR:CON
• Potential Wednesday Threat Cities: Wichita, Kansas | Oklahoma City | Kansas City

Wednesday's Threat Area

• Thursday: More widespread severe thunderstorms possible from the southern Plains to the Mississippi Valley and southern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Some supercells with tornadoes possible. There is some uncertainty in how unstable the atmosphere will become in the afternoon after morning thunderstorms rumble through the region. This will dictate exactly how much and where we see the most significant severe storms in the afternoon.
• Potential Thursday Threat Cities: St. Louis | Chicago | Little Rock, Arkansas

Thursday's Threat Area

• Friday: Scattered severe storms possible with damaging winds and hail from the Mid-Atlantic states to the Gulf coast and westward into Texas.
• Potential Friday Threat Cities: Washington, D.C. | Raleigh, North Carolina | San Antonio

Friday's Threat Area

Also, with this slow-moving western trough and the east-west frontal boundary in play, heavy rain and flash flooding could become serious threats, particularly in parts of the mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys saturated from heavy rain this past Thursday night and Friday.
(MORE: Louisville Water Rescues, Homes Evacuated | Photos | Vehicle a Flood Danger)

Rainfall Forecast Through Friday

Check back with us at The Weather Channel and weather.com for the latest on this potential severe weather outbreak.
Do you know where to go in your home, apartment, condo, or place of business if a tornado warning is issued?
(MORE: 7 Things You Should Never Forget When Tornadoes Threaten | Watches and Warnings Explained)
Now is a good time to refresh your tornado safety plan, before a warning is issued.

 

MORE: Tornadoes Strike Oklahoma (March 25, 2015)