By Courtney Spamer, AccuWeather meteorologist
September 13,2017, 10:59:51PM,EDT
A strengthening tropical system will pivot in the East China Sea and track towards Japan through weekend.Talim, which became a typhoon earlier this week, swept just to the eastern Taiwan, bringing just a few higher gusts and showers to the island.
Talim is currently a typhoon about 270 km (165 miles) southwest of Kadena, Japan, with winds reaching 213 km/h (132 mph), equivalent to a Category 4 hurricane in the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific basins. Breezy conditions and outer rainbands from Talim will continue for northern Taiwan, including Taipei, into early Thursday as the system passes east of the Island.
Further intensification is expected as Talim tracks to the northward away from Taiwan and into the warm waters of the East China Sea.
“Favorable environmental conditions along the path of Talim will allow the typhoon to become very intense into the weekend,” AccuWeather Meteorologist Adam Douty said.
Warm water will provide the fuel for Talim to strengthen over the coming days. Wind shear, which is the a disruptive change in wind speed and direction at different levels of the atmosphere, will be low which is favorable for strengthening.
"Eastern China will receive a glancing blow from Talim as it pushes through the East China Sea towards the island of Kyushu, Japan," AccuWeather Meteorologist Adam Douty said.
While some bands of heavy rain, bringing as much as 75 mm (3 inches) to some areas, and wind gusts up to 80 km/h (50 mph) can still reach the coasts of Zhejiang and Fujian of China, the worst effects will be over the open water towards the center of Talim.
Rough seas are expected around Talim over the next few days as the system stirs the East China Sea. Shipping interests in the area will need to reroute around the storm.
"Given the current forecast track, the most significant impacts from Talim are expected to be across southern Japan," Douty said.
On Friday, Talim will get picked up by a front moving into Japan, likely steering it into Japan over the weekend. This would deliver a severe blow of wind and rain to Kyushu, Shikoku and parts of Honshu.
In terms of wind, Talim is forecast to approach Kyushu as typhoon with winds equivalent to a Category 3 hurricane in the Atlantic. This means sustained winds of at least 178 km/h (110 mph) will be around the eye of the storm.
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Luckily, Talim will weaken quickly once interacting with the mountainous terrain over southern Japan. Despite weakening, Talim will still bring a dose of heavy, tropical rainfall.
"The fast movement of the storm across Japan will help to limit significant flooding, but in excess of 250 mm (10 inches) of rain in some areas could still lead to life-threatening flash flooding," Douty added.
Residents will need to watch out for mudslides which could be triggered by the heavy rain.
The heavy rainfall will make it easier for trees to toppled over in the gusty wind and could create road washouts that would lead to travel disruptions well after the storm leaves the area.
Talim will continue to move northeastward into Monday, becoming weaker as it moves over the rough terrain of Japan.
"As Talim moves through Japan Sunday and Monday, it will become less tropical in nature as it becomes absorbed by the front," Douty added.
This will bringing a good soaking of rain to central and northern islands of Japan.