Sunday, July 9, 2017

Will new Atlantic development follow former Tropical Depression 4?

By Kristina Pydynowski, AccuWeather senior meteorologist
July 9,2017, 3:18:14PM,EDT
 On the heels of former Tropical Depression Four, another tropical wave has emerged off Africa. However, obstacles lie in its path to becoming the Atlantic’s next tropical depression.
Tropical Depression Four weakened to a batch of disorganized showers and thunderstorms in the central Atlantic Ocean last Friday.
“The former depression is not expected to recover from the dry air and wind shear it has and will continue to battle into this week,” AccuWeather Meteorologist Steve Travis said.
Wind shear is the changing of speed and direction of winds at different layers of the atmosphere. Strong wind shear can prevent tropical development or shred apart mature tropical storms or hurricanes.
Tropics July 9

The remains of the depression will continue to track to the west-northwest this week.
“It will bring a slight uptick in shower activity to the northeastern Caribbean islands, Puerto Rico, included to end the weekend, and then Bahamas toward midweek and Florida the second half of the week," Travis said.
Boaters and swimmers should also use caution as seas may become choppy for a time.
AccuWeather meteorologists are also keeping a close eye on a tropical wave that has emerged from the coast of Africa. However, this system has obstacles in its path that it must overcome in order to develop.
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“Currently, there is plenty of dry air in place across the eastern and central Atlantic,” Travis said.
Dry air can prevent thunderstorms from forming around a tropical disturbance, which is a key part to the developing stages of a tropical system. It was dry air that led to the demise of Tropical Depression Four.
There is a low chance that enough dry air can be eroded ahead of the system for the next depression in the Atlantic Basin to take shape.
Inhibiting factors
This system will be monitored for development as it heads westward through the Atlantic Ocean, farther to the south than Tropical Depression Four tracked.
"Once the system reaches the Caribbean Sea toward the end of the week, it may be able to become better organized as the air will be sufficiently moist for development and ocean waters are plenty warm," Travis said.
However, the system may face another road block to development if the strong wind shear currently encompassing the Caribbean does not lessen prior to its arrival.
Regardless of development, increased showers and choppy seas could still plague residents and visitors of the Lesser Antilles later this week.

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