Friday, July 14, 2017

India: Greatest monsoon rain flood risk to focus on Gujarat this weekend

By Kristina Pydynowski, AccuWeather senior meteorologist
July 14,2017, 8:00:46AM,EDT
The same monsoon low responsible for the deadly flooding in India’s Assam state will put lives and property at risk across western India this weekend.
Residents in Ahmedabad, Bhuj, Rajkot and Surat will be on high alert for significant flooding as the monsoon low spreads heavy rain westward across Gujarat.
Rainfall totals along the low's path will average 100-200 mm (4-8 inches) with local amounts to 300 mm (12 inches).
At the same time, locally heavy rainfall will persistently stream into Mumbai and the rest of coastal Maharashtra.
India July 14

“While the rainfall is needed across the region, torrential downpours will bring the threat for dangerous flash flooding and mudslides,” AccuWeather Meteorologist Eric Leister said.
Runoff from the excessive rain may overwhelm streams and rivers, forcing them out of their banks and flooding nearby land and neighborhoods. Residents should prepare for possible evacuations, road closures and damaged bridges.
“The risk for flooding will be greatest underneath the monsoon low in Gujarat,” AccuWeather Meteorologist Rob Richards said. “Any flooding around Mumbai will be on a more localized level.”
The monsoon low and its heaviest rain may push offshore by Sunday. However, localized downpours will continue to stream onto India's western coast into early next week.
Across most of the rest of India, another developing monsoon low will bring an increase in downpours in Odisha and Chhattisgarh this weekend.
Pockets of 50-100 mm (2-4 inches) of rain will pour down and raise the risk for localized flash flooding.
India weather center
5 dangers to be aware of after a flood strikes
Detailed forecast for Mumbai

Monsoonal shower and thunderstorm activity around New Delhi and Chennai will be very spotty in nature this weekend.
In northeastern India, most of the activity will occur in the mountains. However, a shower or thunderstorm may occasionally drift over the Brahmaputra River Valley, especially later in the day and at night.
Any heavier downpour will renew or worsen ongoing flooding triggered by the monsoon.
The death toll from flooding over the past two weeks in northeastern India stands at 83, according to Reuters.
Assam was hit the hardest, with 53 lives lost in floods and landslides. Roughly 2 million people have been displaced, Assam Chief Minister Sarbananda told Reuters.
The city of North Lakhimpur was inundated with more than 340 mm (13 inches) of rain earlier this week. The Brahmaputra River and its tributaries significantly overflowed their banks but have since started to recede.
The heavy rainfall in Assam has also flooded the Kaziranga National Park, which is home to the world’s largest one-horned rhinoceros population.
A total of three of the endangered rhinos have drowned. The one-horned rhino is currently facing a high risk of extinction in the wild, according to the World Wildlife Fund.
“Aside from the danger of the floodwaters, the threat of poachers hunting the rhinos is elevated since the animals are unable to flee through flooded areas and some may be forced off the protected park acreage,” Leister said.
Looking ahead to next week, a new monsoon low is expected to track from eastern to western India with a renewed danger of flooding rain. Downpours may further increase across northeastern India.

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