Published: July 10,2017
This week will, once again, feature an upper-level pattern that will enhance wet conditions in the Midwest and East and hotter-than-average temperatures in parts of the West.
One area of the U.S. that will see a change will be the Southwest where moisture is expected to increase, which will help to lower temperatures slightly.
We are also keeping a close eye on the Atlantic through the week ahead for the potential development of a tropical system.
1) Wet Pattern Persists in EastA southward dip in the jet stream, or trough, will be in place over the East to start the week, before a more zonal pattern, or less amplified jet stream, develops midweek. Another trough is then expected to slide into the Midwest and Northeast by mid-to-late week.
This will keep an active storm track across the Midwest and Northeast through this week.
This Week's Forecast
Ample moisture is expected to remain in place, and many areas in the Midwest, Ohio Valley and Northeast will see 1 to 3 inches of rainfall through Thursday. The highest rainfall totals will likely be from northern Illinois into northern Ohio. Strong to severe thunderstorms are also possible.
(MORE: Severe Weather Forecast This Week)
Meanwhile in the South, a stationary front will remain across the region into Tuesday. A fairly typical summertime pattern, along with a moist airmass, is expected to develop mid- to late week. This will result in scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening.
2) Persistent Western and Plains HeatA strong upper-level dome of high pressure is generally expected to remain in place across the West through much of this week. A slight shift eastward is expected early this week, before strengthening over the entire West, once again, late in the week.
Many areas in the West will experience slightly cooler temperatures Monday into Tuesday, due to the eastward shift of the upper-level ridge. The central and northern Plains will see the worst heat during this time.
As the ridge reintensifies across the West later in the week, widespread heat will build across the Northwest, northern Rockies and northern Plains, once again.
(MORE: Heat Wave Will Intensify Drought in Dakotas, Montana)
This persistent heat wave along with mainly dry conditions will only aggravate the ongoing drought in eastern Montana and the Dakotas, where extreme drought conditions have developed, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor.
3) Moisture Increases Across the SouthwestRainfall is expected to increase in the Southwest. The setup this week will allow more typical monsoon activity than we have seen so far this year in the Southwest.
Monsoon moisture became more noticeable over the weekend, and it will persist through this week.
This Week's Forecast
(MAPS: Weekly Planner)
This moisture will also bring a welcome break from the excessive heat and an increase in cloud cover. The excessive heat will also diminish in Southern California early this week.
4) Watching the TropicsWe're keeping a close eye on the tropics the rest of July and closer to peak hurricane season (mid-August through September).
Current Atlantic Satellite
It's too early to know if this tropical wave will develop into a tropical depression or tropical storm and whether it will impact land, so be sure to check back to weather.com for updates.
In the eastern Pacific, Hurricane Eugene rapidly strengthened to a major hurricane (Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale) southwest of Baja California on Sunday, and continues to move northwestward well away from the coastline. Eugene will weaken and eventually dissipate through the week ahead with no direct impact to land.
(MORE: Spectacular Images Show Hurricane Eugene Become First Major Hurricane Observed By GOES-16)
MORE: Japan Flooding, July 2017 (PHOTOS)
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