Strong to Severe Storms Possible in the Plains and South Late Week

Jonathan Belles
Published: March 19,2017
The first week of astronomical spring could bring another round of severe weather to parts of the Plains and South.
Ingredients will begin to come together on Thursday as an energetic upper-level system moves from the Rockies into the Plains.
(MORE: Tornado Central)
By late Thursday, a potentially strong area of low pressure is expected to develop in the central Plains and then move into the Midwest through the end of the week.
Aloft, winds at jet stream level are expected to be strong out of the southwest, which will be very supportive for storms to grow and be sustained.
Moisture will surge northward into the central Plains into late week, creating a buoyant environment for storms to take root in and grow vertically. Dew points in the 50s and 60s should be supportive of severe storm development, especially on Friday.
(MORE: Where to Expect Tornadoes in March)

There is uncertainty about how much deep moisture there will be and how far north the moisture will surge, which is one factor that will dictate how large this severe threat will be.
For now, here is a general outlook for later this week. Keep in mind that since we are still several days away, this forecast is subject to change. Check back with weather.com for the latest.

Timing

Thursday-Thursday Night

• The chance for severe storms will begin in the central and southern High Plains, from Kansas southward to north Texas, during the late afternoon, evening and overnight hours.
• Damaging wind gusts and large hail are possible threats from any severe storms.
• Storms that do develop will push eastward through Kansas, Oklahoma, north Texas and perhaps southern Nebraska through the overnight hours. 
• Gusty winds are expected during the evening hours, even outside of thunderstorms.

Thunderstorm Forecast For Thursday Evening

Friday

• The best chance for any severe storms will be from east Texas, eastern Oklahoma and eastern Kansas to parts of Missouri, Arkansas and northwest Louisiana.
• Damaging wind gusts and large hail will be possible. We are too far out in time to forecast the potential for tornadoes.
• By late Friday, severe storms could reach the Mississippi River, with thunderstorms potentially reaching as far north as the Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes. 

Thunderstorm Forecast For Friday

Saturday

• The cold front will slide across the Mississippi River into the Ohio Valley and South with showers and thunderstorms.
• Severe storms may continue in some areas as the weather system pushes east.

Thunderstorm Forecast For Saturday

MORE: Tornadoes in the Midwest, March 6, 2017

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