Threat of Severe Thunderstorms, Heavy Rain Returns To Southern Plains

Linda Lam
Published: February 18,2017
The low pressure system that brought one of the worst storms in years to California will push east this weekend, bringing the threat of heavy rain and severe thunderstorms to portions of the southern Plains Sunday.
This next round of rain and thunderstorms comes less than a week after tornadoes impacted the Houston area.
(MORE: Tornadoes, Severe Weather Southeast Texas Mid-February)

Severe Setup

As this low pressure system and upper-level trough, or southward dip in the jet stream, moves across the Southwest and into the Plains, moisture from the Gulf of Mexico will spread northward.

Setup for heavy rain and strong to severe thunderstorms.

The coverage of thunderstorms will increase in the afternoon due to the added moisture and an increase in instability.
(MORE: Does a Warm Winter Lead to an Earlier Start to Severe Weather's Prime Season?)
A widespread area of rain is expected, and on Sunday night, the concern will transition from severe thunderstorms to heavy rainfall.
This system will continue moving eastward and will bring showers and thunderstorm along the Gulf Coast into parts of the Southeast and Florida into midweek.

Severe Weather Forecast

A few scattered showers and thunderstorms may develop Saturday night in southern Texas, but the area impacted will increase by Sunday afternoon.
Sunday Forecast

• Strong to severe thunderstorm will develop in central Texas and southern Oklahoma during the afternoon, tracking into eastern Texas into Sunday night.
• The primary threats are damaging wind gusts and large hail, but a few isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out.
• FORECAST: Dallas | San Antonio | Houston

By Monday, rain and thunderstorms will shift east and will bring locally heavy rainfall, but a lower risk of severe thunderstorms. Showers will continue to spread eastward into parts of the Southeast and Florida through Wednesday.

Sunday Night's Thunderstorm Forecast

Locally heavy rain will also be a concern. A widespread area of 1 to 2 inches of rain is expected from eastern Texas eastward into Mississippi, western Alabama and the western panhandle of Florida.
A few locations in parts of eastern Texas and southern Louisiana could see up to 5 inches of rainfall, which could lead to flooding.

Rainfall Forecast

Although flooding will be a concern in many areas, the rain will likely be beneficial in other locations where drought conditions persist.
(MAPS: Weekly Planner)
This includes Oklahoma and portions of western Arkansas, as well as far southern Texas. Rainfall will be lighter farther east where drought remains in northern Alabama and northern Georgia, as well as part of the Florida peninsula.
MORE: New Orleans Tornadoes, February 2017 (PHOTOS)

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