Heavy Rain and a Few Severe Storms Possible in the Southern Plains This Weekend

Brian Donegan
Published: January 12,2017
Parts of the southern Plains may see locally heavy rain and a few severe thunderstorms this weekend on the warm side of Winter Storm Jupiter.
(MORE: Winter Storm Jupiter a Major Ice Threat)
The setup for the stormy weather will involve a stalled front that will park itself over this region for several days, bringing periods of rain. Then, an area of low pressure will develop on the tail end of that front and push east late in the weekend, potentially bringing heavier rain and the possibility of strong thunderstorms.

Here's a general timeline of the rain that will impact the southern Plains.

• Thursday/Thursday Night: Rain showers and an isolated thunderstorm are possible from central and south Texas into southeast Oklahoma and Arkansas.
• Friday/Friday Night: Showers and thunderstorms will stretch across Texas, eastern Oklahoma, Arkansas and Louisiana, while freezing rain impacts areas just to the north. The best chance for thunderstorms is in parts of western and central Texas.
• Saturday/Saturday Night: Steadier areas of rain and thunder will develop over similar areas to Friday, across Texas and into eastern Oklahoma and Arkansas. Storms will also spread west into New Mexico. Freezing rain continues to fall just to the north.
• Sunday/Sunday Night: The most organized, heaviest area of rain and thunderstorms will move through Texas and Oklahoma during the day and into the overnight. Severe thunderstorms are also possible in portions of Texas.
• Monday/Monday Night: Heavy rain and thunder will continue in eastern Texas, with areas of rain extending into parts of Louisiana and Arkansas and possibly into southern Missouri.

(MAPS: 7-Day Rain/Snow Forecast)

Rainfall Forecast

In general, 1 to 3 inches of rain are expected across much of Texas, Oklahoma and Arkansas through Monday, with a few spots seeing more than 3 inches.
A widespread and major flood event is unexpected at this time, since this rain falls over a period of several days. However, with cold top soils after the recent arctic air mass surges, the ground will not be as absorbent as in the warm season. Therefore, localized flooding cannot be ruled out where any areas of heavy rain stall over the same location for several consecutive hours, known as training.
(MORE: January Thaw Ahead for Parts of South, East)
There may also be just enough instability for a few severe storms in parts of Texas on Sunday. The primary risks are damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes. This would be ahead of the main upper-level system, which will begin pushing eastward by that time.

Thunderstorm Forecast

Beyond that, any remaining areas of heavy rain will likely shift toward the Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys Tuesday and Wednesday, and eventually into the Southeast later next week.
Parts of this forecast are still several days away, so check back for frequent updates over the next several days.

MORE: Flooding in Texas