Tuesday, January 10, 2017

Expansive Ice Storm May Hit Parts of the Plains, Midwest and Northeast Late This Week and Into the Weekend

Jon Erdman
Published: January 10,2017

A potential ice storm is on the table late this week for an expansive swath of the Plains, Midwest and parts of the Northeast that could last through the weekend.
(MORE: Winter Storm Central)
This past weekend, a swath of the South was put on ice by Winter Storm Helena with a combination of freezing rain, sleet and snow. Then, Winter Storm Iras created an icy mess in Oregon's Willamette Valley and other parts of the West.
The setup is familiar in January. Namely, warmer, more moist air from the Gulf of Mexico is expected to glide over subfreezing air near the ground over the Plains, Midwest and Northeast.
(MORE: Five Reasons Why Freezing Rain Really Is The Worst)

Ingredients for a Potential Ice Storm
While it's much too soon to determine how much ice may accumulate in any one area, here's some general timing and areas that may see ice and snow.
Keep in mind, these forecasted areas of ice will change somewhat as we get closer to the event and the forecast guidance comes into agreement.

Friday

  • Sleet or freezing rain may develop from the central and southern Plains to the Ohio Valley.
  • Any snow should be confined to the central and southern Rockies and Four Corners.

Friday's Outlook

Saturday

  • Freezing rain and/or sleet may continue from the central and southern Plains into the Ohio Valley.
  • Some significant, possibly damaging ice accumulations are possible in these areas, particularly in the Plains.
  • Some snow is possible on the far western edge of the precipitation area in the Rockies and immediate Front Range.
  • Some snow, sleet or freezing rain may spread into parts of the mid-Atlantic states, as well. 

Saturday's Outlook

Sunday

  • Forecast uncertainty is higher from this point on.
  • For now, the ice threat persists from the southern Plains (Texas panhandle) to the Mississippi Valley, spreading into the southern Great Lakes by evening.
  • Parts of the East may see a break in the wintry precipitation, if surface high pressure builds in strong enough.
  • Some snow may also fall on the western edge of this precipitation area, where colder air is deeper, in the Rockies and adjacent High Plains.

Sunday's Outlook

Monday

  • With warmer air pushing northward, the area of ice threat also pushes farther north into the upper Midwest and Great Lakes.
  • Some snow, sleet or freezing rain may move back into parts of the Northeast, though uncertainty on that is high.
  • A small pocket of snow is possible in parts of the Plains.

Monday's Outlook
(MAPS: 7-Day Rain/Snow U.S. Forecast)
Where freezing rain persists, accumulations capable of making travel dangerous, downing trees and power lines and triggering power outages are possible in parts of these areas.
(MORE: What Ice Accumulations Mean)
If that wasn't enough, areas to the immediate south of the ice zone may see several inches of rain, potentially triggering flash flooding from parts of the Ohio Valley to north Texas.
If you have travel plans in these areas this weekend, check weather.com frequently for the latest updates on this system, and be prepared to make alternate plans if necessary.
MORE: Winter Storm Helena Photos (January 2017)

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