Will the Atlantic yield one more tropical storm this year?

By Alex Sosnowski, AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist

November 10,2016; 12:01AM,EST

 

 

Conditions have been quiet over the tropical Atlantic for weeks. However, there is the potential for another system to develop prior to the end of November.
The Atlantic hurricane season does not officially end until Nov. 30.
A significant change in wind direction and speed from the sea surface to the middle layers of the atmosphere have been a key player in preventing tropical development in recent weeks. This phenomenon is known as wind shear.

"Wind shear has and will continue to inhibit tropical development into the first part of next week," according to AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski.
Wind shear generally increases during the late autumn. However, there are some periods where wind shear can decrease, especially over the deep Tropical Atlantic.
One such dropoff in wind shear may occur soon.
"We expect wind shear to diminish over much of the Caribbean Sea later next week," Kottlowski said.

Historically, this is an area where there tends to be late-season development.
"Should a system form in that region, it could be steered toward the north or northeast," Kottlowski said.
Interests in Florida, Cuba, Haiti, the Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico and the Lesser Antilles should continue to check in on the situation.
The next name on the list of Atlantic tropical storms is Otto.
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On average, one tropical storm forms every two years during November.
Major (Category 3 or higher) hurricanes are very rare during November. The major November hurricanes are Paloma in 2008, Michelle in 2001, Lenny in 1999, Kate in 1985, Greta in 1956, the Cuba Hurricane in 1932 and Hurricane Seven in 1912.
A hurricane has never made landfall in the United States as a Category 3 system or higher during November. However, three lesser hurricanes have made landfall during November in the U.S. since 1900. These occurred in 1985, 1925 and 1916. All three of these hurricanes hit Florida.
Paloma lost tropical characteristics before reaching the Florida Panhandle in 2008.