Tuesday, November 1, 2016

It Hasn't Rained Since Hurricane Matthew in the Flood-Ravaged Carolinas

Brian Donegan
Published: October 31,2016

Hurricane Matthew paralleled the Southeast coast Oct. 6-9, dumping over a foot of rain from parts of Georgia to the Carolinas and southeastern Virginia, along with deadly storm-surge flooding and damaging wind gusts. In the three weeks since, it hasn't rained in much of the Southeast.
Not that one would want a deluge to trigger flooding in a drought, but the rain from Matthew didn't exactly overlap well with the rapidly worsening drought area in the Tennessee Valley, just to the west.
(MORE: Hurricane Matthew Recap)
Estimated rainfall from Matthew.
As of the latest U.S. Drought Monitor, released last Tuesday, nearly 40 percent of the Southeast was classified in a moderate to exceptional drought, with moderate being the lowest drought classification and exceptional being the highest.
A broad swath of the interior Southeast has received less than 15 inches of rain since May 1, translating to rainfall amounts of 5 to 15 degrees below average during the six-month period.
Drought conditions across the Southeast as of Oct. 25, 2016 (data from U.S. Drought Monitor).
There are at least 17 cities currently experiencing a top-three driest May-October on record, including Chattanooga, Tennessee, Columbus, Georgia, and Macon, Georgia. In fact, Chattanooga is currently more than 14 inches of rain below average over the last six months.
(MORE: South May Not See Much Relief from Drought This Winter)
Although 40 percent of the Southeast seems like a high amount to be under drought conditions, if it weren't for Hurricane Matthew at the beginning of October, the drought would likely be more widespread due to the lack of rain since then.
As fall progresses, the drought may continue to worsen based on current long-range outlooks, and it doesn't help that fall is also the driest season of the year climatologically.
(MORE: November Outlook)
The Southeast relies on spring and summer thunderstorms, as well as tropical systems, in the summer and early fall to pick up rainfall. Thunderstorm season, for the most part, has come to an end, and hurricane season officially ends Nov. 30.
November precipitation outlook from The Weather Company, an IBM Business.
Based on the November precipitation outlook above from The Weather Company, an IBM Business, it is unlikely to see much, if any, improvement to the Southeast's drought conditions over the next month. Chances of rain will be few and far between.
On the other hand, this dry spell has allowed coastal areas of the Southeast to dry out after Matthew ravaged the area in early October.
With 3+ weeks of no rain, you can see the soils are drying out across Southeast NC and Northeast SC, nothing like the western Carolinas.

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