Election Day Forecast: Could Weather Have an Impact?

Brian Donegan
Published: November 4,2016
Election Day is just a couple days away, and you may be wondering what conditions will be like as you head out to the polls Tuesday. Could the weather possibly turn the Senate race, or even the presidency?
While there is still some minor forecast uncertainty this far out in time, we're not expecting a major storm anywhere in the U.S.
(MAPS: Weekly Planner)
However, some inclement weather is possible in a few spots. Let's take a region-by-region tour of Tuesday's forecast.

Election Day Forecast

Northeast

Fortunately, a stronger area of low pressure should remain sufficiently offshore, southeast of Atlantic Canada, to have zero impact on the weather near the Northeast seaboard.
There is a cold front that will push toward the eastern Great Lakes, with a threat of rain showers associated with that. Typical for a forecast this far out, the timing of that feature remains in question, but the best chance of showers appears to be after the polls close Tuesday evening from western New York to northern New England.
Elsewhere, the weather should be dry.
Highs will be above average for the second week of November, generally in the 50s in New York state and New England, and 60s from New York City southward into the mid-Atlantic states.
(FORECAST: Boston | New York | Pittsburgh | Washington D.C.)

South

The greatest chance for wet weather will be in the south-central states, including parts of Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Arkansas and Oklahoma. Dallas, Houston and New Orleans are among the cities where rain is possible.  This threat of rain appears to be growing both in extent and in forecast confidence.
Temperatures will be up to 15 degrees above average across the region, translating to highs mainly in the 70s to perhaps even near 80 degrees in the Deep South.
(FORECAST: Atlanta | Miami | Memphis, Tennessee | Dallas)

Midwest

A cold front will be sliding across the Great Lakes on Election Day, bringing a low chance for a few showers out ahead of it.
If the front slows down, the showers would set up farther to the west. If it speeds up, they'd set up farther east. Stay tuned for updates over the next several days.
Most midwesterners will stay dry as they head to the polls.
No cold weather is expected with high temperatures 10 to 20 degrees above average across the entire region, this corresponds to highs in the 50s and 60s for most locations.
(FORECAST: Detroit | Chicago | Minneapolis | St. Louis)

West

The only hiccup in the forecast may be a weak Pacific system bringing rain to western Washington, Oregon and northwestern California.
The rest of the West is currently expected to be dry and pleasant with sunshine and above-average temperatures (away from the immediate coast).
Highs will range from the 50s and 60s across the Northwest, to the 70s and 80s in Southern California and the Desert Southwest.
(FORECAST: Los Angeles | Denver | Seattle | Salt Lake City)

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