By Katy Galimberti, AccuWeather.com Staff Writer
June 22,2016; 10:50PM,EDT
El Niño officially came to an end in early June, and experts are calling for a La Niña to develop in its footsteps.
La Niña is the cool counterpart to El Niño, characterized by unusually low ocean temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific.
La Niña puts emphasis on the northern jet stream while weakening the southern jet stream, keeping moisture in the northern tier of the country.
The jet stream is a narrow zone of strong winds in the upper levels of the atmosphere, separating warm air to the south and cooler air to the north.
At this point in the season, AccuWeather forecasters are predicting a weak La Niña to develop during late fall and into the winter. An area of warmer-than-normal water off the northwestern U.S. coast, nicknamed the "warm blob," is inhibiting a strong La Niña from forming.
The pocket of warm water is expected to linger, impacting La Niña and its impacts in the United States.
Here's what a weak La Niña could mean for the U.S.:
A developing weak La Niña will lead to an uptick in tropical activity in the Atlantic Ocean through the rest of the peak hurricane season, which ends on Nov. 30.
"Historically, some hurricane seasons that have followed a transition from El Niño to La Niña have been very active. It's possible we could flip from one extreme to the other, from below-normal seasons the past three years to an above-normal year in 2016," AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski said.
La Niña will suppress the westerly winds that typically disrupt tropical development in the Atlantic, giving way for more systems to form.
Transitioning into the fall, warmth could hold on late in the season across the eastern United States.
La Niña will bring its full impacts to the U.S. throughout the winter season, Pastelok said.
In the East, snowfall is expected to be around normal. La Niña could lead to some big East Coast systems during the second half of the season.
"Areas like southern New York state and northeastern Pennsylvania that missed out on snow last year could see higher-than-normal totals this winter," Pastelok said.
Colder-than-normal conditions are predicted to grip the northern Rockies and northern Plains over the late fall and into the winter, with some harsh spells at times.
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During the coldest periods in the winter, nighttime temperatures could drop into the minus 30 to minus 40-degree Fahrenheit range.
"The wet and stormy weather that will hit the South into the fall will begin to quiet down in the winter as La Niña really kicks in," Pastelok said.
However, the expected weak strength of La Niña will allow some moisture to sneak into the region at times.
For flood-ravaged areas like Missouri and eastern Texas, the mainly dry weather will prove beneficial.
Dry weather will exacerbate drought conditions across the Southwest. Central and Southern California could face the harshest conditions, including below-normal snowpack in the southern Sierra Nevada.
The northwestern U.S. will experience the brunt of La Niña's impacts, leading to stormy conditions throughout the winter. However, the warm blob will limit the cold a typical La Niña would bring to the area.
Alaska could face another warmer-than-normal winter on the heels of a record-breaking season last year.
Questions or comments? Email Katy Galimberti at Kathryn.Galimberti@accuweather.com and follow her on Twitter Follow us on Twitter or on Facebook.
William Smith ·
Works at South Park
Gee,why
don't they just expand their forecasts to a 365-day forecast. I
mean,the summer has only just started and already they're looking to the
winter of 2016-17, 6-9 months from now? Come on. They've already blown
the 2016 summer forecast (at least the initial one for the Northeastern
US as far as their forecast for a hot summer [which now,if their 90-day
forecast is to be believed,will be the coldest on record in terms of no
90+ degree days]) and now we're to believe that the winter of 2016-17
will be the coldest,snowiest on record? Give me a break!
Lee Marmaduke ·
What?
The weather people cannot even forecast the next day let alone tell
what the weather will be this coming winter. They have the only job I
know where you can be wrong but still have a job the next day. Don't
really know why they forecast that far ahead.
1
Andrea Jill
I'm
so sick of the humid, rainy and cold Northeast! This winter I'm heading
west. I can't wait to experience a drought! I want this forecast.
Heather Moscaritolo ·
Pet Stylist at Petco
I
don't beleive this for a second! They forecasted ct to be much above
average all summer and we've had 1 90° day where I live, night time
Temps have yet to get above 63°. What a crappy beginning to summer hope
it heats up and stays but I doubt it.
Steve Stanton ·
And if you believe this i have some land i can sell you on Mars. Its a red hot real estate market right now
Tom Trzebiatowski Jr.
Missouri is not flood ravaged.we are very dry for June and middle 90s and no rain so far....
Richard Schmiedel ·
Accuweather
can`t get the forecast right for the next day. How can they expect us
too believe 6 months out. They said above normal for april thru June.
Guess what. Below normal. Generally go opposite of what they say.
John Watson
Sorry
I'm not sure this makes sense. The only La Nina since the 1950s in
which the east coast had large snowstorms was 2011. Every single other
La Nina had below average snow and a warmer winter.
Ed Berling ·
I've
gotta' admit, last year they made predictions early like this and they
were spot on for my area of the country - a boring, not very cold, not
very snowy winter in the Chicago area. It was so bad we had our heaviest
snowfall of the season before Thanksgiving!
John Connors ·
P.S. no more 70s on Christmas eve maybe a white Christmas and or New year's day!!!
John Connors ·
I hope they are few more snow days with a blizzard or two unlike last year!!!!!
David Colantuono ·
Works at Unemployed
I
hope this Winter is an improvement over the busted Winter of 2015-2016.
One blizzard and a few minor snowstorms that were mostly
insignificant. Too bad there's no such thing as a "snow dance".
There's a "rain dance". Why can't there be a "snow dance"?
Chris Vincent ·
I love it, I am ready to shovel in the nasty cold weather again I missed shoveling this past winter.
Wayne Langhuber ·
First
of all you cannot predict the winter of 2016-17 in June. I looked back
at the last 6 La Nina years and 2 of them (95-96 and 10-11) were cold
and snowy in the Mid Atlantic while (99-00 and 98-99) were mostly mild
with cold snaps. 2011-12 saw virtually no snow and temps 5+ normal.
2007-08 was slightly above normal. No real pattern. I am one of those
people who believe the coldest winters in the Northeast are in neutral
years. La Nina is at best a weak predictor of winter weather. The PNA,
AO and NAO will determine what our winter will be like. The warm blob
off the coast of the NW US might keep cold air north of the US if there
is a neutral AO or neutral NAO. Even having this discussion now is
useless. Right now lets see if it develops, how strong it gets and what
the predictors for the PNA, AO and NAO are. The biggest snowstorm in
Philly occured in a La Nina year while the 2011-12 winter was very warm.
Cory Morrison ·
Works at Fortinos
If
it is not 2015 or 2014 like in terms of severity and persistency of the
cold, a relatively rough winter would not be too hard to accept.
Wayne Langhuber ·
Cory,
I think its too early to forecast this winter. La Nina's at least in
Southern Pa are highly variable. See Lawrence's post below. Here in
Southern Pa the coldest winters are usually neutral years like 13-14 and
14-15. NAO is more determinative of what our winter will be like.
Grant McGuire ·
Is this the same AccuWeather that predicted summer 2016 would be much warmer than average, with a high tally of 90-degree days?
Richard Schmiedel ·
Yes. The same accuweather. They are always right. Just ask them. I`m sure by now they will say they never said that.
Rocco Salvemini ·
No 70s this time around in NYC on Xmas eve
William Smith ·
Works at South Park
Funny!
It was warmer on December 24,2015 than it was for most of the day on
June 8,2016! Talk about crazy (look it up,from 75 on December 24 to 50
degrees at 3PM on June 8). Maybe that song was right "Sometimes the snow
comes down in June. Sometimes the sun goes round the moon"
Lawrence P. Bansbach
Winter
2010-11 was a La Niña, and Philly got 44 inches. The NAO was negative
all of December 2010 (with 12.7 in. of snow), most of January 2011 (25.2
in.), and only 6 days in February (6.1 in.), and it was positive the
first 3 weeks of March (only a trace amount). The next winter was also a
La Niña, and we got 4 inches. It was a very mild winter, with plenty of
days in the 50s and 60s. Between December 1, 2011, and March 21, 2012,
the NAO was negative only 4 days, and then only mildly.
Cory Morrison ·
Works at Fortinos
NAO I definitely agree will be a big factor for snow as usual.
J Randall-Patti Burn ·
Sensational
Rob Zwerling ·
Winter....it's only 6 months way, nothing could change in 6 months...right? (sarcasm).
J Randall-Patti Burn ·
Rob Zwerling
Oh my gosh, I hope they have new weather apps for this lisum!
Sensational
Oh my gosh, I hope they have new weather apps for this lisum!
Sensational
Rob Zwerling ·
Umm....really..guys..it isn't even June! Don't foreget ENSO strength, wheres it's best NAO, AO,PNA. Too Early.
Rob Zwerling ·
Sam Eggers S**t! I meant July. They both start with a J. Well, thats an embarrassing Brainfart!
Rob Zwerling ·
Cory Morrison Exactly, I mis-spoke/typed, point is 6 months sounds to early for all this hype.
Nora O'donnell Wilson ·
Nothing
was said in particular for the Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes as to
where precip is concerned . Wet or dry or average precip?
Cory Morrison ·
Works at Fortinos
It will probably be much snowier than last winter.
John Zelinski
Very
nice article and of course time will tell, not sure how temps will be
lets say south of I70 where you have it dry. Will temps be normal or
above?
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