Wednesday, May 18, 2016

2016 Canada summer forecast: Severe storms to strike East; hot, dry weather to worsen drought, exacerbate wildfires in West

By Brian Lada, Meteorologist
May 18,2016; 10:11PM,EDT
 
 
Much of Canada is in for a very warm summer this year as extended periods of hot and dry weather grip large areas of the country.
The most intense heat will focus on British Columbia, Alberta and Saskatchewan, worsening the drought and increasing the risk for wildfires.
Meanwhile, the threat of damaging storms will stretch across parts of Ontario, Quebec and New Brunswick.

JUMP TO: Stormy weather to frequent eastern Canada| Drought to worsen as dry, hot pattern dominates central and western Canada | Wildfire season to worsen following early start with Fort McMurray fire
Stormy weather to frequent eastern Canada
People from southern Ontario to the Atlantic coast can expect not only a warmer-than-normal summer, but also periods of unsettled, potentially high-impact weather.
"July could be an active month in terms of severe thunderstorms, especially from southern and eastern Ontario through southern Quebec and interior New Brunswick," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Brett Anderson said.
This includes the cities of Toronto, Ottawa, Montreal, Quebec City, Windsor and Hamilton.
The primary threat with the severe storms will likely be gusty winds and flooding downpours as hot, steamy air spreads into the region from the south.
The threat for severe weather will not be as high in Atlantic Canada; however, AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski warns that the region will have a greater chance of being hit by a tropical storm late in the summer compared to last year.
Lightning streaks across the Toronto skyline. (Photo/John R. Southern)
Not only will the fronts bring stormy weather to the East, but also some temporary relief from the overall warmer-than-normal pattern.
"The summer will bring more up and down temperature patterns as frontal passages will be common; however, much of the region from southern Ontario through Atlantic Canada will end up with a warmer summer compared to normal," Anderson said.
Additionally, the humid air across Atlantic Canada will limit how cool it will get during the overnight hours and will also promote more fog.
Drought to worsen as dry, hot pattern dominates central and western Canada
A hot and dry weather patten will dominate much of western and central Canada, worsening the already present drought conditions across British Columbia, Alberta and Saskatchewan.
"The worst drought conditions are currently across Alberta and northeastern British Columbia and we do not expect any significant relief through the summer," Anderson said.
According to the most recent assessment of the drought conditions, large swaths of Alberta are in a moderate to severe drought, including the cities of Calgary and Edmonton. Some portions of southern Saskatchewan and northern British Columbia are also in a moderate drought.
RELATED:
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Similar to areas farther east, those across central and western parts of Canada can expect a summer that is hotter than normal.
"The summer will be slightly warmer than normal along the West Coast, thanks in part to the large area of above-normal sea surface temperatures over the northeast Pacific Ocean," Anderson explained.
He added that the increasingly dry soil across the interior will enhance summertime warmth, resulting in an unusually high number of days reaching above 32 degrees Celsius (90 degrees Fahrenheit).
Wildfire season to worsen following early start with Fort McMurray fire
In addition to contributing to a worsening drought, the hot and dry conditions will also heighten the threat for wildfires.
"The 2016 wildfire season got off to a quick start and we expect another active season across the West," Anderson said.
The Fort McMurray fire was an alarming start to the wildfire season, forcing the entire city to evacuate before the blaze engulfed the area. This single fire may end up being the costliest disaster in Canadian history, according to the Calgary Sun.
Other fires are also burning across the region with more likely to start in the coming months due to a combination of lightning strikes, impending heat and dryness.
"Widespread smoke from these fires will be a factor through the summer months, resulting in lower air quality and an increase in hazy skies," Anderson added.
Smoke from these wildfires will be carried thousands of miles downwind, potentially being seen in the skies over eastern Canada and parts of the United States.
Flames approach a shopping center in Fort McMurray, Alberta. (Twitter photo/@SidlySquidly)

Questions or comments? Email Brian Lada at Brian.Lada@accuweather.com and be sure to follow him on Twitter! Follow AccuWeather on Twitter or on Facebook.



Ze Benfiquista
Hi! Im just here to checkout the weather.
Like · Reply · 1 hr
Filipe Tavares ·
yup its normal when a mini ice age occur, look it up man if u dont believe me theres always a wedge in alaska
Filipe Tavares ·
Global warming is not occuring , major cooling is. The proof is observable with cooler summer and longer winters
Like · Reply · 1 · 4 hrs
Claude Lafond
If your predictions are like this winter and spring it will not occur for southern Ontario and Québec.
Like · Reply · 1 · 4 hrs
Filipe Tavares ·
i agree bill, usually when el ninas occur, august and september are warm preparing for the winter 2016-17, its been a long time we didnt get snowy winter here in Quebec
Like · Reply · 1 · 4 hrs
Brenda Pauline Blakeney ·
Here in Edmonton it has been 3 years since we have had any substantial rain and the winters haven't produced much snow either!
Like · Reply · 3 hrs
Filipe Tavares ·
yup 1 time out how much time they failed lol
Filipe Tavares ·
Where's the cool spot going to be in the summer?? There's no cool spot, i doubt that with the cool spring that we having this year in the east. Way a go Accuweather always predicting hot summers to push the global warming agenda forward, its totally garbage!!!
Like · Reply · 1 · 5 hrs
Cory Morrison ·
Works at Fortinos
They predicted that 2014 would have no summer in the East and were bang on.
Like · Reply · 1 · 4 hrs
Bill Ross ·
I expect the cold regions will be southern Ontario, southern Quebec and perhaps Atlantic Canada up to at least mid-summer. later in the summer it could flip.
Like · Reply · 4 hrs
Bill Ross ·
Cory Morrison do you remember the 2015 prediction...I recall it was either normal, or below normal for our area.
Like · Reply · 4 hrs
Cory Morrison ·
Works at Fortinos
Bill Ross I think they predicted it to be near to slightly warmer than normal. Most other sources I believe predicted for last summer to be cooler (I remember TWN saying "Deja Vu of 2014"). Heck, even Dave Phillips I believe picked up on the "developing El Nino" rule last year when it comes to predicting summers.
Like · Reply · 1 · 4 hrs
Hector Ledezma-bongiovi ·
when you say hot wheather, do you mean 80 degrees?
Like · Reply · 1 · 10 hrs
Bill Ross ·
that's normal for a high in Ontario. 80 degrees would be hot for a night time minimum temperature, or the 24 hour average temperature.
Like · Reply · 6 hrs
Hector Ledezma-bongiovi ·
Bill Ross how cute 80 degrees is hot! try 125 degrees, That is hot here in las vegas
Like · Reply · 1 · 5 hrs
Cory Morrison ·
Works at Fortinos
Hector Ledezma-bongiovi 80F especially seems hot here in Ontario because in the past few summers, we had more days below 80F than normal.
Like · Reply · 2 · 4 hrs · Edited
Bill Ross ·
Hector Ledezma-bongiovi In the warmth-starved east (which is becoming the new north pole), 80 degrees is pretty warm. I would die for 80 degrees right about now. we've reached a measly 75 degrees only once this year so far. and we haven't had a decent summer since 2012 and this year is in danger too with all the blocking.
Like · Reply · 1 · 4 hrs
Hector Ledezma-bongiovi ·
Cory Morrison WOW!!!
Like · Reply · 4 hrs
Hector Ledezma-bongiovi ·
Bill Ross so what is the average temp during the summer time?
Like · Reply · 4 hrs
Bill Ross ·
Hector Ledezma-bongiovi here the average high is 81, low is 59 in July (away from the city). In a utopian climate, high would be 85, low of 65.....year round.
Like · Reply · 1 · 4 hrs
Neven Prvinic ·
Bill Ross opps my area fails your test...our highest normal from about 7/10 to about 8/1 is 83F/65F.
Like · Reply · 1 · 1 hr
Fran Ferguson
Hoping for a bad winter for drought stricken areas
Like · Reply · 1 · 13 hrs
Jay Callaghan
After this spring I will believe this forecast when I see it.
Like · Reply · 1 · 14 hrs
Brad Gagner
LOL! I know, right? Where's this "Above Average" Spring all these geniuses were forecasting?
Like · Reply · 1 · 13 hrs
Jay Callaghan
Brad Gagner I'm annoyed there hasn't been a single thunderstorm in my area (Peterborough, ON). Been itching to get out chasing/photographing them and nothing yet.

Part of me hopes that we see a stormy summer but not when my kid's play soccer.
Like · Reply · 1 · 13 hrs
Burke Anthony Lowry ·
Brad Gagner its been out west, especially Alberta for almost 3 months. Its brutal, been devastating and we just need normal weather and about 200 mm of rain !!
Like · Reply · 1 · 7 hrs
Cory Morrison ·
Works at Fortinos
Jay Callaghan late overnight hours are the best time for them IMO.
Like · Reply · 4 hrs · Edited

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