By Andy Mussoline, Meteorologist
December 4,2015; 11:00PM,EST
An El Niño pattern is expected to funnel mild air into the East through the start of 2016, allowing the snow drought to continue for major East Coast cities.
While the Eastern states will continue to see a snow drought through January, the West will have an abundance of snow.
"A strong, Pacific jet stream [storm track] will continue to provide moisture-laden storms into the West through early next year," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Brett Anderson said. "This is great news for the western ski areas and for some of the drought-stricken areas."
116-Year-Old Record Broken
Unusually warm weather has been prominent across the East this November, and this trend is expected to continue through the end of 2015 and start of 2016.
"El Niño years notoriously produce a lower-than-average snowfall across the northeast United States, and we're seeing this so far," AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Elliot Abrams said.
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The lack of measurable snow so far this season in Buffalo, New York, set a record on Dec. 4 for the latest date without accumulating snow. This streak broke a 116-year-old record. Each day that Buffalo does not observe accumulating snow, a new record will be set.
The snow drought extends toward the Midwest, where numerous cities are below 2014 snowfall totals. There are a few exceptions, however. Chicago and Des Moines, Iowa, are among the cities that have received more snow so far this year in comparison to last year.
During a strong El Niño in 1997-98, which is similar in many ways to this winter's pattern, the I-95 cities received well-below-normal snowfall. New York City recorded 5.5 inches of snow that year, compared to the normal seasonal snowfall of 25.1 inches.
Mild air will continue to stream into the eastern U.S., limiting opportunities for snow along the I-95 corridor, from Washington, D.C., to New York City, through late December and early January.
Earlier this year, AccuWeather Chief Long-Range Meteorologist Paul Pastelok explained that there was going to be a lack of lake-effect snowfall around the Great Lakes region due to a lack of long-lasting cold.
Abundant Snow to Target Western U.S.
"There will be a busy storm track into the Northwest well through next week, bringing numerous snow opportunities to the Cascades and that track may head south later in December to bring needed snowfall to the Sierras," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Ken Clark added.
The storms, which will line up frequently to impact the West, have the potential to bring substantial rain and snow as an El Niño pattern strengthens the storm track and adds fuel in the form of abundant moisture this winter.
This will open up the opportunity for snow to be measured in feet rather than inches with each storm.
Popular ski resort areas that are predicted to receive above-normal snowfall include Alta and Snowbird, Utah, Telluride and Vail, Colorado, and Tahoe, California, and Jackson Hole, Wyoming.
Alaska Far From a Snow Drought in 2015
One year is making a huge difference in how much snow has fallen across Alaska. Snowfall totals in Anchorage and Fairbanks so far this season are close to matching the total snowfall from last season.
Anchorage has recorded 18.1 inches of snow, and Fairbanks has recorded 29.2 inches of snow through Dec. 4. During the same stretch last year, Anchorage had 8.5 inches, and Fairbanks had 15.7 inches.
For the entire cold season last year, Anchorage had 23.2 inches, only 72 percent of normal, and Fairbanks had 43.5 inches, only 73 percent of normal.
Moving forward, the weather across much of Alaska will take a turn toward generally dry conditions through the middle of December as a high pressure system stays in control.
Gabe Williams
I'm
sorry, you'll have to excuse me, but wasn't this year's El Nino
supposed to be the reason the lower half of the country was supposed to
see below to well below normal temperatures, and higher than average
precipitation? NOW, that SAME El Nino is the reason same said region of
the country is supposed to have higher than normal temperatures and near
normal precipitation?! What the F has happened to professional weather
forecasting the past 15 years? It's gotten so much more unreliable and
unpredictable. I'm just going to stick to the Farmer's Almanac, I
suppose.
Andrew Zack Junior ·
If
the 2015-16 winter Stars Warm Then we will probaly get Colder temps in
late January & we will Also See Snow Stormes Hiting us in the East
Coast untell Later March Unlick Lasts Years December Here in N.J We wont
get any Big Snow Fall at all Maybe a fwe fluries
David Ummel ·
We haven't been low on precipitation, and the national weather media ignores the Northern Indiana snow belt again
Aaron Ginther ·
El
Nino's are notorious for below average snow in the northeast? Well
that's funny.. becuse every strong El Nino except 1997-98 and 1972-73
produced above average snow for many places in the Mid-Atlantic. Did you
know 8 out of 10 of our snowiest years were El Nino's?
Then again.. I also live in Virginia. For New England, it may be a little different, but many cities along the east coast from NYC and points south can get hit big in El Nino years. A lot of people don't realize every El Nino is different.
Then again.. I also live in Virginia. For New England, it may be a little different, but many cities along the east coast from NYC and points south can get hit big in El Nino years. A lot of people don't realize every El Nino is different.
Mike Paulocsak ·
I agree with you Aaron. Your area can get hit pretty hard during El Nino's.
Cory Morrison ·
What is interesting is that in many El Nino's, farther north of you (At least in my area) seems to get below normal snowfall.
Mike Paulocsak ·
Well.
Looks like that BIG MONSTER STRONG EL-NINO some thought would bury the
east coast may not happen. Some people need to understand that every
EL-NINO is not the same. Some keep bringing up 97-98. Yeah it's early
but anything can happen. In my opinion, anyone has a decent chance of
getting a decent storm or two this coming winter. If your a snow lover
keep your fingers crossed you get a decent snow.
Paul Roberts ·
According
to this map there is going to be above average snowfall for Northern
Wisconsin/Western U.P. Michigan/Minnesota. I don't see hardly any snow
in the forecast for these areas so how can there be above average snow?
Can anyone shed some light on this?
Jason Stevens ·
Texas
was supposed to be cooler than usual, but guess that is not going to
happen! Wait all hotter than hell summer for some cold weather and we
get this!
Phil Derasmo ·
They
said mid January but in reality you can look ahead only about 2 weeks
with any real confidence. As far as El Niño winters being backloaded,
even if this occurs I think it's safe to say February 2016 is still
likely to be warmer than average. Considering some areas in the
northeast had departures as much as -15 last February, it's possible
February 2016 will be 20 degrees warmer in some places. Look at the
average temperature map for February during El Niño years. It still
shows above normal temperatures across the northern states. Granted this
is an "average" and weather is rarely average.
Cory Morrison ·
Good
point, however, the maps that show above normal temperatures in the
northern states are from people using 1997-98 as their main analog
(Since 1998 was one of the only warm El Nino February's in the East),
when this year's super El Nino (And sst's around the world in general)
has been a lot different from that year.
Anders Updale ·
Yet
even with El Nino in place can there be more cold air to return to the
Mid-Atlantic in late February or early March to bring some snow to NYC?
Shawn Reichart
I hope I don't see one stinking snowflake! Snow and cold SUCK!!!!!!
Daniel Fryson ·
Well, a lot of us like the snow and cold, Shawn. I hope this pattern changes by January. Mild weather in winter is boring!
I
am glad that they said through "Mid January". Cause all indications are
for a colder second half of winter in the east. Except for 1992 and
1998 most every El Nino that I can think of has seen rough Februaries
most recently 2003,07 and 09. This is not going to be a repeat of
1997-98. I hope people realize this.
Cory Morrison ·
I
am honestly annoyed at people who keep writing off winter in early
December. People did the same thing last year in December too, and boy,
was that a huge mistake!
Wayne Langhuber ·
Cory
Morrison true. When we had that Halloween snowstorm on Oct 29, 2011
everybody assumed it would be a rough winter. However once the snow
melted we had 5 month string of much above normal temps and only one
snowstorm the entire winter. (That was 2011-12).
Aaron Ginther ·
Cory Morrison
I know you want the milder winter.. but I honestly cannot wait until El
Nino goes away. I can't take the media uproar anymore.. I'm just sick
and tired of tired of hearing the same things over and over. "No winter
this year" "Winter will be like 1997-98" "this will be the year without a
winter".
NOT EVERY FRIGGEN STRONG EL NINO BEHAVES LIKE 1997-98!!
NOT EVERY FRIGGEN STRONG EL NINO BEHAVES LIKE 1997-98!!
Aaron Ginther ·
And
I'm also wondering as to how "1997-98 is similar in many ways to this
winter's pattern". November 1997 was cold, and December 1997 actually
started out cold as well. Big difference.
Cory Morrison ·
Aaron Ginther
also another thing, when comparing 2015 and 1997, both May and February
were opposites (2015 had the very cold February and very warm May,
while 1997 had the opposite).
I look forward to El Nino going away not only because of the reason you mentioned above, but so we can get a La Nina increasing the odds for a hot summer.
I look forward to El Nino going away not only because of the reason you mentioned above, but so we can get a La Nina increasing the odds for a hot summer.
Aaron Ginther ·
As
far as I'm concerned.. the weather this year has never matched up with
1997. Also, when looking at global factors, there are many many many
differences that aren't even noted. I don't understand why just because
this year is also a super El Nino, means it will behave the same as the
previous super El Nino event.
It's kind of like assuming two brothers have the same personalities, share the same interests and like the same things just because they're siblings.
It's kind of like assuming two brothers have the same personalities, share the same interests and like the same things just because they're siblings.
Aaron Ginther good analogy. I think of analogies a lot, but I do not know why I did not come up with one for this situation.
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