Friday, December 25, 2015

Winter Storm Goliath to Bring Snow to Central States and New England; Blizzard Warnings in High Plains

December 25,2015
Winter Storm Goliath will spread snow from the Rockies to parts of the Plains, Upper Midwest and possibly New England through early next week. Some of the heaviest snow amounts may target parts of the southern High Plains where strong winds could also cause blizzard conditions. As a result, NOAA's National Weather Service has posted blizzard watches and warnings for parts of this area.
(MORE: Science Behind Naming Winter Storms)
A variety of other winter storm watches, warnings and advisories are in effect across the Plains from Texas northward to parts of Minnesota and Wisconsin. While mainly snow is anticipated across the central to northern Plains, a combination of snow, ice and rain will fall over parts of Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas.

Winter Weather Alerts
In addition to snow, the warm side of Goliath will produce severe thunderstorms and heavy rain this weekend. For more on that story, click the link below.
(MORE: Severe Weather Forecast)
An area of low pressure will develop aloft over the Southwest and southern Plains this weekend. In response to this, a surface low pressure system will also develop in the southern Plains this weekend, which combined with sufficient cold air to its north from high pressure, will result in heavy snow for parts of the southern Plains. That area of low pressure will then track towards the Midwest early next week, bringing snow to parts of that region and eventually New England.

Current Radar
Below is an overview of the timing for Winter Storm Goliath followed by the snow accumulation forecast. Keep in mind that forecast changes are likely since this storm will last into early next week when uncertainty increases.

Winter Storm Goliath Storm Timing

Friday Night
Snow tapers off across the central Rockies, including parts of Utah, northern Arizona, northern New Mexico, Colorado and Wyoming.
A weak wave of low pressure will eventually allow accumulating snow to spread through Nebraska, South Dakota, Minnesota and Wisconsin overnight.
Cities Potentially Affected: Sioux Falls, South Dakota (Friday night) | Minneapolis (Friday night)
Saturday
Snow continues to sweep eastward across parts of the northern Plains and Upper Midwest during the day as weak low pressure moves through. This includes a swath from South Dakota to Minnesota, northern Wisconsin and Upper Michigan.
Through the day, and especially Saturday night, the storm will really begin to crank up in the southern Plains, with snow or rain changing to snow increasing across parts of New Mexico, west Texas and western Oklahoma. Increasing winds combined with the snow may lead to poor visibility and dangerous travel conditions in the southern High Plains. Blizzard conditions are not out of the question. A narrow band of freezing rain or sleet is also possible from the Texas Panhandle to west-central Oklahoma and central Kansas, particularly Saturday night.
Cities Potentially Affected: Albuquerque, New Mexico (Saturday - Saturday night) | Roswell, New Mexico (Saturday-Saturday night) | Amarillo, Texas (Saturday night) | Lubbock, Texas (Saturday night)
Interstates Potentially Affected: I-40, I-25, I-27, I-70

Saturday's Forecast
Sunday
Snow, possibly heavy, persists in parts of New Mexico, west Texas, southwestern Kansas and southeastern Colorado. Strong winds gusting to 50 mph on the backside of the low pressure system will likely combine with the snow resulting in poor visibility and dangerous travel conditions with possible blizzard conditions at times. Some power outages are also possible due to the strong winds.
A transition area of sleet and freezing rain may continue from parts of the Texas Panhandle to west-central Oklahoma and south-central Kansas. Ice accumulations could be locally significant on power lines and tree branches, which combined with strong winds, may lead to power outages.
Cities Potentially Affected: Roswell, New Mexico | Lubbock, Texas | El Paso, Texas | Amarillo, Texas | Oklahoma City
Interstates Potentially Affected: I-40, I-25, I-70, I-20, I-10

Sunday's Forecast
Monday - Tuesday
The timing of the storm is highly uncertain early next week, and will depend on how quickly the area of low pressure moves northeastward into the Midwest and the exact track that low takes. In addition, the amount of cold air available for the storm to tap into could be limited.
For now, snow or a wintry mix may pivot from the southern High Plains into the Midwest Monday into Tuesday as shown on our forecast maps below. Wintry weather is also possible in central Pennsylvania, Upstate New York and New England as moisture from the storm runs into cold air supplied by high pressure in eastern Canada. In Pennsylvania, southern New York and southern New England, this wintry precipitation would change to rain as warmer air pushes north.

Monday's Forecast

Tuesday's Forecast

How Much Snow?

The second phase of Goliath will deliver the heaviest snow. At the moment, computer model forecast guidance is indicating that some of the highest snow totals may target parts of southwestern Kansas, western Oklahoma, West Texas and eastern New Mexico. This is depicted by the dark purple and pink shadings on our forecast graphic below. It's not out of the question that some locations could see 12 inches or more of total snow along with crippling blizzard conditions.
A second round of accumulating snow may also blanket parts of the northern and central Plains and Upper Midwest early next week, but that will depend on the amount of cold air available and the exact track of the low pressure system forming in the southern Plains this weekend.
In addition to the snow, ice accumulations could be locally significant from northwest Texas into parts of central Oklahoma and southern Kansas.
This forecast map shows the snow forecast for both phases of Goliath through next Tuesday in the Midwest and Plains.

Snowfall Forecast Through Next Tuesday
New England Snow?
Finally, some accumulating snow is possible in New England and Upstate New York early next week Monday night through Wednesday. It's far too early to get into specifics, but this map below gives a general idea of the locations that could see snow.

New England Snow Potential

Snowfall Reports

Here is a listing of some of the greatest snowfall amounts by state:
California
  • 20 inches at Kirkwood Ski Resort
  • 20 inches at Northstar Ski Resort
Idaho
  • 5.7 inches near Notus
Nevada
  • 24 inches at Heavenly Ski Resort
  • 22 inches at Mt. Rose Ski Area
Oregon
  • 14.5 inches near Gold Beach
Washington
  • 4.0 inches near Deer Park
Wyoming
  • 13.7 inches near Thayne
  • 9 inches near Wilson

More on Weather.com: Deepest Snow in All 50 States

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