By Alex Sosnowski, AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist
December 2,2015; 9:47PM,EST
Much of the central and eastern United States can expect mild weather often from December into January due to El Niño.
El Niño occurs when tropical Pacific waters are warmer than normal, and the pattern can last several months to a couple of years. The warm waters can impact the weather patterns around much of the globe.
While the pattern may not be good news for cold weather enthusiasts, it will translate to savings on heating for at least part of the winter.
According to AccuWeather Chief Long Range Meteorologist Paul Pastelok, an ongoing and strengthening El Niño may succeed in keeping arctic air out of much of the United States well into the winter.
"We see impressive signals that the overall mild pattern that got rolling in the Central and Eastern states during October and November will hold through December and into January," Pastelok said.
"El Niño is contributing to a strong belt of westerly winds across Canada that will help keep the polar vortex strong but locked up near the Arctic Circle," Pastelok said.
This does not necessarily mean that every day will be mild and free of snow in the central and eastern U.S., but rather cold and snowy days will be infrequent.
As temperatures naturally trend downward into January, some storms may still produce substantial snow, especially in the northern tier, in the Appalachians and the Central states. However, the snow may not lay around very long as temperatures may not remain cold enough.
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This year's El Niño is already considered to be strong and may continue to strengthen over the next couple of months. In recent years that had a strong El Niño, temperatures averaged much above normal in most of the Central and Eastern states.
For example, the El Niño of 1997-98 brought an average temperature for December through February of 7.2 degrees Fahrenheit above normal in Minneapolis.
The mild conditions produced during a strong El Niño can limit the amount of snow that falls from storms along the Atlantic Seaboard.
During the strong El Niño of 1972-73, Philadelphia did not receive measurable snow during the entire winter. Measurable snow is 0.1 of an inch or more. During the same winter, New York City also experienced its least snowiest winter with 2.8 inches of snow. Boston had its third least snowiest winter, with only 10.3 inches of snow received. Records for these cities date back to the mid-1800s.
Every year the weather is different, no matter how similar the weather pattern may appear. As a result some variability is to be expected during long-range forecasts.
However, while there are a number of factors that determine the weather pattern for the winter, a major player is associated with the strength of the El Niño.
For instance, during a weak or weakening El Niño, fluctuating steering winds across the U.S. and Canada may allow the polar vortex to weaken, shift position and send frigid air well to the south.
There is some lag to the impact of a strong El Niño.
"When El Niño starts to weaken, we do not always get an immediate change in the weather pattern," Pastelok said. "We believe that once the current El Niño peaks, there may be enough of a lag to carry the warmth through much of the winter."
William Smith ·
The
last several winters around here didn't even start until February here
in the NYC area. Last winter,our coldest months,by far,were February and
March. How many winters have happened here in the NYC area/Northeast
where the coldest weather hits in February and/or March? In 2 straight
winters we had set snowfall records in February the first year and the
following year,in March,and both were after mild,snowless Decembers and
Januarys. A lot of our biggest snowstorms/snowfalls in our history have
happened in February and March around here. So I suggest we wait and see
what happens and take these forecasts 30,60 days out with a grain of
salt.
Kurt Stephenson
I
love how they say "this winter," in the headline and then in the
article say "December and January." Such flawless journalism...
David Kennedy ·
Our
winters begin about January 10th...and we have had many warm
Decembers...I remember the temp in 1964 was 67* on December 23rd..
It is ...what it is...
It is ...what it is...
David Colantuono ·
Works at Unemployed
I wish there was a site online for me to let loose and vent out when I need to without censoring anything.
David Colantuono ·
Works at Unemployed
I
can't say what I'm thinking. Profanity is one of the things that will
not be tolerated on this site. Just know I'm thinking R rated words in
my head.
Kurt Stephenson
I
hope you realize that 1)The actual article only says mild for Dec. and
January, 2) There have not been that many strong el nino's, so the data
by which they draw conclusions is sparse, 3) 82/83 was a strong el nino
winter that had cold and lots of snow in Feb, 4) the 97/98 winter they
mention was cold in November and much of march, so even it had its cold
periods, 5) research indicates there were some strong el nino winters
back before 1950 that were not that mild, and 6) Weather forecasting is
only a FORECAST, and not a GUARANTEE.
However, if you still feel the need for a string of profanities, there are plenty of places to express such sentiments.
However, if you still feel the need for a string of profanities, there are plenty of places to express such sentiments.
David Colantuono ·
Works at Unemployed
Kurt
Stephenson I forgot to mention that I've had the air conditioner
running today because it felt too warm to be without it. Yes...the air
conditioner...in DECEMBER! If this forecast comes out true, I'm liable
to use it in January (and possibly February) as well.
Eddie Huang
This is the exact opposite of what you predecticed a month ago.
Kurt Stephenson
The
el nino is still more east based, but is more flat and broad based...it
probably won't stay that way, but it hasn't moved much yet...also, the
subtropical waters are warmest in the east...now, that being said, the
jet stream in the pacific has been erratic, and has Still split further
west, so it really remains to be seen how this plays out exactly...even
in the highly-worshipped 1997 event, the warmth didn't get cranking til
mid dec...there is warmth all over the pacific...nino 1+2 is a very
small region that only covers the southern hemishere, but the area above
it in the northern hemisphere is warm...the el nino has killed the
positive pdo, and can possibly prevent an AO...but the west pacific
seems to be a big factor, because depstite the broad warmth in the east,
there is a lot of strange movement in the jet stream.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/.../enso_update/sstweek_c.gif
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/.../enso_update/sstweek_c.gif
Kurt Stephenson
1997
had a cold north pacific, so the analogies aren't good, especially
considering how cold it was in nov. Also, that year got pretty cold in
march, but it was too late for any big snowstorms. So one could say the
reason for a non-cold feb. that year was partly the late start to the
warmth.
Kurt Stephenson
yes, what the Euro is showing is a warm pattern, but is not an el nino pattern...
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/...
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/...
Andrew Patterson ·
This
is good that winter will be off to a mild start. With that said, I
don't want to deal with the snow or cold this winter because I can't
deal with it. I need to be outside more often so I could have a healthy
lifestyle. I look forward to a good winter lacking snow and cold,
especially this year. El Nino will bring us the best winter for years to
come.
Cory Morrison ·
I agree with you that I do want a mild winter. However, an El Nino does not always guarantee a mild winter.
Molly Ferguson Schwab
El-Nino
is unusually strong due to climate change...climate change is causing
the pacific to be at record high temps which will cause weird weather
for years to come. I miss the snow and normal weather we all experienced
years ago.
Um,
I like it warm, and don't we want to keep the methane up there locked
in the tundra by cold? I know everyone else wants winter for skiing and
difficult driving and other fun winter sports, but I like it warm,
takes less oil to heat the house. Warm = better, cold = sucks.
Tony Kuderna ·
Nice fresh cold air is good get rid of the germs and bug and alot more dirty stuff in the air. Warm humid air germs city.
Cory Morrison ·
It is great that there is another person that recognizes that it is our turn for a milder winter.
Tony
Kuderna not entirely true, flu viruses are more rampant during cold
winters because of the drier air, influenza viruses need the air to be
extremely dry indoors; that cannot happen as easily during a mild
winter.
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