Sunday, December 6, 2015

3 Weather Stories to Watch in the Week Ahead

Linda Lam
Published: December 6,2015

There may not be much in the way of winter weather in the week ahead for the majority of the U.S., but there will still be a few interesting weather stories to follow.
Below we highlight three potential weather events that may be impactful in the week ahead, from widespread warmth and a relentless parade of storms in the Northwest to the potential return of severe thunderstorms.

1) Warmth Builds Across the Contiguous U.S.


Forecast Highs Compared to Average
The expanse of the above-average temperatures will grow this week across the contiguous U.S. You will have to head to northern Canada to find the really cold air.
A generally zonal (west-to-east) jet stream flow with mostly mild Pacific air will dominate the country through next week. This will bring relatively mild temperatures by early-mid December standards from the West Coast to the East Coast.
(FORECAST: Las Vegas | Minneapolis | New York)
The northern Plains and Upper Midwest will experience temperatures the warmest above average with highs up to 25 degrees warmer than average and lows up to 35 degrees above average. In fact, some locations will see morning lows that are warmer than the average highs for this time of year. Record warm low temperatures are also possible in the Midwest late next week.
(MORE: Warm Weather to Dominate the U.S.)
Highs across the southern tier of the U.S. are expected to be 10 to 20 degrees above average as well.
Cooler temperatures will begin to infiltrate the West by Friday, and then the central states next weekend. High temperatures will likely be near to slightly below average across the West behind the eastward advancing cold front.

2) No Break For Pacific Northwest 


Pacific Northwest Forecast
A deep trough, or southward dip in the jet stream, will send several storm systems into the Pacific Northwest through much of this week.
This pattern is different from what we observed last fall and winter when the jet stream drove storms into northern Canada. Last week two weather systems brought rain, snow, ice and wind to the Pacific Northwest. Five different storms are expected into the upcoming weekend.
(MORE: Pacific Storm Parade to Lash Northwest)
The result of this storm track will be periods of rain with a potential flood threat developing. Snow will also fall in the higher elevations of the Cascades and Sierra Nevada mountains, and snow levels will lower later in the week. Gusty winds are likely at times as well, especially along the coast.
(FORECAST: Seattle | Portland, Oregon | San Francisco)

3) Return of Severe Storms, Heavy Rain?


Friday's Forecast
After a few days of dry weather for much of the Plains and East, moist air will likely begin to return northward starting Wednesday. Two or more areas of low pressure are expected to push eastward into the central U.S. and Great Lakes for the second half of next week.
A few scattered rain showers may develop in parts of the Midwest on Wednesday as a disturbance moves through the region. These may move into parts of the East on Thursday. For now it appears that even the northern fringes of this disturbance may be too warm for snow, in spite of the time of year.
(FORECAST: Chicago | Atlanta | New Orleans)
A potentially stronger system may follow behind this disturbance, pulling truly mild and moist air north from the Gulf of Mexico and pulling somewhat colder air southward into the north-central U.S.
This could set the stage for strong to severe thunderstorms sometime between Friday, Dec. 11 and Sunday, Dec. 13, over parts of the southern U.S. Heavy rain may accompany that storm system into parts of the Ohio Valley, mid-Mississippi Valley and southern Great Lakes. Depending on the details, plowable snowfall could blanket a stripe of territory in the Plains and/or Upper Midwest.
(MORE: Thunderstorm Outlook for the Coming Week)
It's too early to be much more specific than that, as the complexity of the pattern is leading to big differences in computer model forecast output.
Regardless of those details, temperatures ahead of this system will remain above average for this time of year, while cooler temperatures will move in behind the cold front associated with this area of low pressure.
(MAPS: 10-Day Forecast)
Be sure to check back for updates as we follow these weather stories in the days ahead.
MORE: December Destinations (PHOTOS)

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