Severe Thunderstorms Continue Eastward March (FORECAST)

November 18,2015

The threat of severe weather continues its eastward march Thursday after an outbreak of tornadoes and severe thunderstorms that struck the Plains Monday spilled over into the Gulf Coast states on Tuesday and Wednesday.
NOAA's National Weather Service has issued a tornado watch until 3 a.m. for portions of east-central Georgia and western South Carolina. The watch includes the city of Augusta, Georgia.
(MORE: Tornadoes Confirmed in Kansas, Texas, Oklahoma, Nebraska)
The severe storms, capable of producing damaging winds and perhaps a couple of brief tornadoes, will mainly focus on parts of the Carolinas through Thursday.
Wednesday's Storm Reports:

• The National Weather Service said that the public reported a tornado north of Elgin, Florida, at 1:05 p.m. EST.
• A separate brief tornado was confirmed by radar 10 miles south-southeast of Deerland, Florida, at 12:35 p.m. EST.
• Funnel clouds were reported near Kinston and Elba in Alabama.
• At least four homes were reported damaged by a possible tornado near Goodes, Georgia at 4:48 p.m. EST.
• A radar-indicated tornado (not yet confirmed) with possible debris passed by the Palmetto, Georgia area shortly before 5 p.m EST.
• Downed trees and powerlines were reported in Fairburn, Georgia at 5:19 p.m. EST.
• A tree was reported to have brought down powerlines in East Atlanta at 5:51 p.m. EST.
• The National Weather Service is investigating two parts of DeKalb County, Georgia to determine if any tornadoes touched down.

Wednesday's Thunderstorm Forecast

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Severe Thunderstorm Forecast

Overnight:

• Threat Areas: East-central and southeast Georgia, northern Florida and western to central South Carolina.
• Damaging winds are the main threat, but a brief spin-up tornado or two could occur as well.

Thursday: 

• Threat Areas: A few severe storms may rumble through parts of the eastern Carolinas, southeast Georgia, northeast Florida and far southeast Virginia. Localized damaging wind gusts would be the main threat from any storms that do turn severe.
• Cities: Savannah, Georgia | Charleston, South Carolina | Greenville, North Carolina | Norfolk, Virginia

Friday:

• A few non-severe thunderstorms are possible from central to south Florida.

For specific tornado threat forecasts, check out the latest TOR:CON forecasts from severe weather expert, Dr. Greg Forbes.
In addition, the thunderstorms will produce torrential rainfall which will raise the risk of flash flooding from the Gulf Coast to the Mississippi Valley. The link below has more on that threat.
(MORE: Flood Threat Continues)

Current Radar with Watches and Warnings

Current Radar with Watches and Warnings

The radar map(s) above focus on the most likely areas for severe weather and/or flash flooding, if any. Maps update every five minutes; refresh this page for the latest image.
For radar and watch/warning information in other areas of the country, click on the links below.
(MORE: View National Interactive Radar Map | Difference Between a Watch and a Warning)

Storm Reports This Week

So far the National Weather Service has confirmed 30 tornadoes from this storm system, starting with an EF1 near Denair, California, on Sunday. There have been no reported deaths or injuries from any of the tornadoes.
Most of the tornadoes struck Monday, when at least 23 tornadoes hit Kansas, Texas, Oklahoma and Nebraska. Final surveys for possible additional tornadoes in central and western Oklahoma are still pending.
Three of the tornadoes were rated EF3, including two tornadoes that struck one after another near Pampa, Texas, in the Texas Panhandle Monday evening. A Halliburton oil and gas plant just outside Pampa was destroyed by one of the EF3 tornadoes, causing chemical spills and gas leaks.
The other EF3 tornado tore a 51-mile swath through southwest Kansas, with the most significant damage occurring at a farm outside Kismet. There, irrigation pivots and other machinery were destroyed.
Three confirmed tornadoes struck Texas Tuesday morning. Two hit the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex, an EF0 near Keller and an EF1 in Hickory Creek. The other was an EF1 near Carlos and Iola, northwest of Houston. A fourth Tuesday morning tornado was confirmed outside Checotah in eastern Oklahoma.
At least two tornadoes have been confirmed from Wednesday morning, both of them EF1 tornadoes in Mississippi.
(MORE: Tornadoes Strike Plains | Southeast Damaging Storms)

Storm Reports Tuesday-Wednesday

The severe weather has been more scattered since late Tuesday morning. Parts of Arkansas, Louisiana and Mississippi saw downed trees and power lines from scattered severe storms on Tuesday. Early Wednesday morning, central Mississippi had a few reports of tornadoes. However, those reports will have to be confirmed by the National Weather Service.

Meteorology 101: What is Causing the Severe Weather?

The upcoming jet stream pattern is expected to be similar to last week's severe weather setup, although the focus this time is farther south, as a powerful southward dip in the jet stream intensifies over the Southwest, then pushes east into the Plains.

Current Temperatures and Dewpoints

Ahead of this bullish jet-stream dip, warm, moist air from the Gulf of Mexico will be transported into the Plains, as surface low pressure develops east of the southern Rockies.
As the jet stream digs south and amplifies, strong wind fields will work into an environment characterized by warm, unstable air in the low levels of the atmosphere and colder air working in from the northwest, aloft. The setup appears highly favorable for the development of severe thunderstorms.
Given the proximity of this system to the Gulf of Mexico, a sizable area of warm and humid (unstable) air should coincide with impressive wind shear to cause a more widespread area of severe thunderstorms than the Midwest saw this last Wednesday.
This system moved into the West on Sunday and producing an EF1 tornado Sunday afternoon with trees and power lines down, as well as damage to multiple structures near Denair and Turlock, California.
Severe thunderstorm outbreaks, like what occurred this last Wednesday, are not uncommon in November. If anything, this upcoming event targets an area that is climatologically favored for the threat of severe weather in November, particularly the Lower Mississippi Valley and Deep South.
(MORE: Where November Tornadoes Are Most Common)
In addition to the thunderstorm threat, due to the strong low-level wind fields expected with this system, damaging non-thunderstorm wind gusts may be possible across parts of the Plains, Midwest Mississippi Valley, Ohio Valley and Tennessee Valley.
Check back with us at weather.com for the latest on this potential severe weather event.

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MORE: Fall Tornado Outbreak of Nov. 21-23, 1992