High Plains, Deep South Tornado Outbreak of November 2015 (FORECAST)

November 19,2015

A storm system that triggered an outbreak of tornadoes and severe thunderstorms across the Plains on Nov. 16, 2015 started by producing a tornado in California the day before and continued to produce tornadoes further east through Nov. 18.
(MORE: Tornadoes Confirmed in Kansas, Texas, Oklahoma, Nebraska)
Below are the forecast details on where isolated severe storms are possible Thursday.Severe Thunderstorm Forecast
Friday - Sunday

• No severe thunderstorms are expected as a mainly stable environment is forecast across the country.

For specific tornado threat forecasts, check out the latest TOR:CON forecasts from severe weather expert, Dr. Greg Forbes.

Current Radar with Watches and Warnings

The radar map(s) above focus on the most likely areas for severe weather and/or flash flooding, if any. Maps update every five minutes; refresh this page for the latest image.
For radar and watch/warning information in other areas of the country, click on the links below.
(MORE: View National Interactive Radar Map | Difference Between a Watch and a Warning)

Storm Reports This Week

So far the National Weather Service has confirmed 30 tornadoes from this storm system, starting with an EF1 near Denair, California, on Sunday. There have been no reported deaths or injuries from any of the tornadoes.
Most of the tornadoes struck Monday, when at least 23 tornadoes hit Kansas, Texas, Oklahoma and Nebraska. Final surveys for possible additional tornadoes in central and western Oklahoma are still pending.
Three of the tornadoes were rated EF3, including two tornadoes that struck one after another near Pampa, Texas, in the Texas Panhandle Monday evening. A Halliburton oil and gas plant just outside Pampa was destroyed by one of the EF3 tornadoes, causing chemical spills and gas leaks.
The other EF3 tornado tore a 51-mile swath through southwest Kansas, with the most significant damage occurring at a farm outside Kismet. There, irrigation pivots and other machinery were destroyed.
Three confirmed tornadoes struck Texas Tuesday morning. Two hit the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex, an EF0 near Keller and an EF1 in Hickory Creek. The other was an EF1 near Carlos and Iola, northwest of Houston. A fourth Tuesday morning tornado was confirmed outside Checotah in eastern Oklahoma.
At least two tornadoes have been confirmed from Wednesday morning, both of them EF1 tornadoes in Mississippi.
(MORE: Tornadoes Strike Plains | Southeast Damaging Storms)

Storm Reports Tuesday-Wednesday

The severe weather has been more scattered since late Tuesday morning. Parts of Arkansas, Louisiana and Mississippi saw downed trees and power lines from scattered severe storms on Tuesday.
Early Wednesday morning, a series of weak tornadoes passed through Mississippi. As of early Thursday evening, the National Weather Service has confirmed 11 tornadoes in the state.
Wednesday's Storm Reports:

• The National Weather Service said that the public reported a tornado north of Elgin, Florida, at 1:05 p.m. EST.
• A separate brief tornado was confirmed by radar 10 miles south-southeast of Deerland, Florida, at 12:35 p.m. EST.
• Funnel clouds were reported near Kinston and Elba in Alabama.
• At least four homes were reported damaged by an EF-1 tornado over Palmetto, Georgia. Radar indicated lofted debris with this storm.
• Fairburn, Georgia was also hit by an EF-1 tornado.
• A tree was reported to have brought down powerlines in East Atlanta at 5:51 p.m. EST.

Meteorology 101: What is Causing the Severe Weather?

The jet stream pattern has been similar to last week's severe weather setup, although the focus this time is farther south, as a powerful southward dip in the jet stream intensified over the Southwest, then pushed east into the Plains.

Current Temperatures and Dewpoints

Ahead of this bullish jet-stream dip, warm, moist air from the Gulf of Mexico was transported into the Plains, as surface low pressure developed east of the southern Rockies.
As the jet stream dug south and amplified, strong wind fields worked into an environment characterized by warm, unstable air in the low levels of the atmosphere and colder air working in from the northwest, aloft. The setup was highly favorable for the development of severe thunderstorms.
Given the proximity of this system to the Gulf of Mexico, a sizable area of warm and humid (unstable) air coincided with impressive wind shear to cause a more widespread area of severe thunderstorms than the Midwest saw this last Wednesday.
This system moved into the West on Sunday and producing an EF1 tornado Sunday afternoon with trees and power lines down, as well as damage to multiple structures near Denair and Turlock, California.
Severe thunderstorm outbreaks, like what occurred this last Wednesday, are not uncommon in November. If anything, this upcoming event targets an area that is climatologically favored for the threat of severe weather in November, particularly the Lower Mississippi Valley and Deep South.
(MORE: Where November Tornadoes Are Most Common)
Check back with us at weather.com for the latest on this potential severe weather event.

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MORE: Fall Tornado Outbreak of Nov. 21-23, 1992