(MORE: Tornadoes Reported in Kansas, Texas, Oklahoma, Nebraska)
The severe storms, capable of producing damaging winds and large hail in addition to tornadoes, are on the warm side of Winter Storm Ajax, which has brought blizzard conditions to the High Plains.
(FORECAST: Winter Storm Ajax a High Plains Blizzard)
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has issued the following severe weather watch:
- A tornado watch is in effect until 3 a.m. CST Wednesday for parts of southern and eastern Louisiana and central and south Mississippi. This watch includes Jackson, Mississippi, as well as the cities of New Orleans, Baton Rouge and Lafayette in Louisiana.
Tuesday Night's Thunderstorm Forecast
Wednesday's Thunderstorm Forecast
Severe Thunderstorm Forecast
Tuesday Night:- Threat Areas: Severe thunderstorms continue, possibly in a squall line in southeast Missouri, western Tennessee, Mississippi, southwest Alabama, eastern Arkansas and southeast Louisiana.
- Cities: Jackson, Mississippi | Memphis | Mobile, Alabama | New Orleans
- Threat Areas: Any lingering severe threat will depend on how much instability remains with the system as it moves east. Right now, it appears that a few severe storms could fire from extreme southeast Louisiana and extreme southern Mississippi to Alabama, the Florida panhandle and southern Georgia. An isolated severe storm cannot be ruled out in north Georgia and eastern Tennessee.
- Cities: Mobile, Alabama | Pensacola, Florida
- Low-level winds will weaken and push into more stable air ahead of the cold front which will keep the severe weather threat low overall. However, there is still a chance of a damaging wind gust in extreme southeast Virginia, east North Carolina, east South Carolina, southeast Georgia and northeast Florida.
In addition, the thunderstorms will produce torrential rainfall which will raise the risk of flash flooding from the Gulf Coast to the Mississippi Valley. The link below has more on that threat.
(MORE: Flood Threat Continues)
Current Radar with Watches and Warnings
Current Radar with Watches and Warnings
For radar and watch/warning information in other areas of the country, click on the links below.
(MORE: View National Interactive Radar Map | Difference Between a Watch and a Warning)
Storm Reports From Monday-Early Tuesday Morning
A preliminary count of 25 tornadoes struck Kansas, Texas, Oklahoma and Nebraska late Monday into early Tuesday morning, according to Dr. Greg Forbes of The Weather Channel. We stress that this number is preliminary and will change as surveys are done by the National Weather Service.Among those, a mile-wide tornado was observed near Pampa, Texas Monday evening with major damage reported, including gas leaks and downed power lines. A second large tornado moved through the Pampa area with damage reported as well. A Halliburton oil and gas plant just outside Pampa was destroyed, causing chemical spills and gas leaks. The National Weather Service found EF3 damage just east of Pampa during their survey Tuesday.
A separate EF1 rated tornado was also confirmed in the Texas Panhandle in Ochiltree County.
Two additional tornadoes have been confirmed in Texas to the north of Dallas-Fort Worth, including and EF0 near Keller and an EF1 in Hickory Creek.
In southwest Kansas, a preliminary rating of EF2 has been given to a tornado that moved from Ensign to Howell.
Six additional tornadoes were confirmed in northwest Kansas. Three were rated EF0 and three were rated EF1. The towns of Grainfield and Lenora saw damage from two of those EF1 rated tornadoes.
According to the Storm Prediction Center, this may be the most active tornado day since an outbreak of tornadoes in the southern Plains exactly six months ago, to the day, May 16.
For more details on the tornadoes and severe weather reports click here.
Meteorology 101: What is Causing the Severe Weather?
The upcoming jet stream pattern is expected to be similar to last week's severe weather setup, although the focus this time is farther south, as a powerful southward dip in the jet stream intensifies over the Southwest, then pushes east into the Plains.
Current Temperatures and Dewpoints
Ahead of this bullish jet-stream dip, warm, moist air from the Gulf of Mexico will be transported into the Plains, as surface low pressure develops east of the southern Rockies.
As the jet stream digs south and amplifies, strong wind fields will work into an environment characterized by warm, unstable air in the low levels of the atmosphere and colder air working in from the northwest, aloft. The setup appears highly favorable for the development of severe thunderstorms.
Given the proximity of this system to the Gulf of Mexico, a sizable area of warm and humid (unstable) air should coincide with impressive wind shear to cause a more widespread area of severe thunderstorms than the Midwest saw this last Wednesday.
This system moved into the West on Sunday and producing an EF1 tornado Sunday afternoon with trees and power lines down, as well as damage to multiple structures near Denair and Turlock, California.
Severe thunderstorm outbreaks, like what occurred this last Wednesday, are not uncommon in November. If anything, this upcoming event targets an area that is climatologically favored for the threat of severe weather in November, particularly the Lower Mississippi Valley and Deep South.
(MORE: Where November Tornadoes Are Most Common)
In addition to the thunderstorm threat, due to the strong low-level wind fields expected with this system, damaging non-thunderstorm wind gusts may be possible across parts of the Plains, Midwest Mississippi Valley, Ohio Valley and Tennessee Valley.
Check back with us at weather.com for the latest on this potential severe weather event.
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MORE: Fall Tornado Outbreak of Nov. 21-23, 1992
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