Wednesday, December 7, 2016

Winter Storm Caly A Cross-Country Snowstorm; Forecast to Blanket the West, Midwest and Northeast Into Early Next Week

December 7,2016
Winter Storm Caly will lay down an over 2,600-mile swath of snow from the Pacific Northwest, including Seattle and Portland, Oregon, to the Rockies, Plains, Midwest and Northeast into early next week.
(MORE: How Winter Storms Are Named)
A winter storm warning has been issued for the Portland, Oregon, metro area, while Seattle has been placed under a winter weather advisory. This means significant amounts of snow, sleet or ice are expected, which will make travel very hazardous.
Various other winter storm watches, warnings and advisories are also in effect for much of the Northwest and northern Rockies.
(MORE: Winter Storm Central)

Winter Weather Alerts
With the coldest air of the season either in place or heading in, together with an active jet stream, the stage is set for this cross-country swath of snow.
(MORE: Coldest Air of Season Possible Next Week for Midwest, Northeast)

Pacific Northwest

An impressive arctic air mass has infiltrated not simply the Rockies, but also the entire Pacific Northwest to the coasts of Washington and Oregon.

Current Radar, Temperatures, Conditions
Once this subfreezing air is in place, it can be hard to dislodge, even near the Pacific coast, particularly if it is being resupplied from the east through breaks in the Cascade Range, such as the Fraser River Valley of Washington and Columbia River Gorge.
Therefore, precipitation that falls into Thursday is likely to start out as snow, then may change over to freezing rain over some lower elevations of the Pacific Northwest.
(FORECAST: Seattle | Olympia, Washington | Portland, Oregon | Eugene, Oregon)
The critical uncertainty in this forecast, however, is when the subfreezing surface air near Puget Sound and the Willamette Valley gets scoured out.
For now, a couple of inches of snow seem likely to accumulate, topped by some ice accumulation (mainly in western Oregon), leading to challenging travel along parts of the Interstate-5 corridor Thursday. But, there is potential for more snow and some ice accumulations in these lower elevations if the cold air lingers longer.
(INTERACTIVE: Current Radar | Road Conditions)

Forecast Snowfall Through Midday Saturday
It's safe to say over a foot of snow will pile up in the Cascades, Olympics, northern Rockies and Sierra, as additional disturbances in the jet stream ride over the cold air into the weekend.

Midwest/Northeast Forecast

This weekend, Winter Storm Caly spreads snow into the Plains, Midwest and Northeast. Let's lay out the general timing, then discuss potential amounts.

Saturday


Saturday's Forecast

Sunday


Sunday's Forecast

Monday

  • There is uncertainty regarding how quickly the system moves through the Northeast.
  • Snow may linger in a stripe from parts of New England to the Ohio Valley. 
  • For now, the immediate Interstate-95 Boston-Washington D.C. corridor looks to have rain, but we can't rule out a few wet snowflakes mixing in.
  • Potential cities: Augusta, Maine | Albany, New York | Columbus, Ohio
(MAPS: 7-Day U.S. Rain/Snow Forecast)

Monday's Forecast

How Much Snow?

It is too early to nail down specific snowfall forecasts for particular areas of the Midwest and Northeast.
While we're not expecting a prolific, heavy snow event, overall, some moderate to locally heavy snow totals over 6 inches are possible in a strip from the upper Mississippi Valley to the southern Great Lakes to parts of the interior Northeast.
(MORE: Is Light Snow More Dangerous For Drivers Than Big Snowstorms?)
This is most likely where heavier, small-scale, east-to-west oriented snow bands train over a given area, like train cars over a section of railroad track. These details cannot be pinpointed this far out.

Snowfall Outlook Through Monday
Winter Storm Caly may trigger weekend and Monday travel headaches both on the roads and at some major airport hubs.
Check back with us at weather.com for any changes to this forecast.
MORE: Seattle Snow

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