Another Typhoon Could Threaten Taiwan and the Philippines By Early Next Week

Tom Moore
Published: September 22,2016

A recent flurry of typhoons in the western Pacific has been very unnerving for residents of Taiwan and the northern Philippines, and it looks like yet another threat is looming.
A tropical disturbance in the western Pacific may soon develop into a tropical depression and a tropical storm. Conditions are favorable for this system to eventually become a typhoon and it will be steered in the general direction of Taiwan and the northern Philippines by early next week.
(MORE: The Blob is Back: Anomalous Warmth Returns to the North Pacific Ocean)

Western Pacific Tropical Disturbance

Early Prognosis

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, a disorganized area of thunderstorms (Invest 96W) is located in the western Pacific, about 270 miles west-northeast of the island of Guam.
(MORE: Just Because It's Fall Doesn't Mean We Shouldn't Pay Attention to the Tropics)
There is an area of low pressure at the surface associated with these thunderstorms. The overall environment is favorable for a tropical depression or a tropical storm to form over the next day or so. The next name for a western Pacific tropical storm is Megi.

Setup For Development and Track

The atmospheric and oceanic environments are favorable for this tropical system to rapidly develop and intensify. Wind shear is light and ocean temperatures are in the mid-80s.

Tropical disturbance is expected to move northwestward around a subtropical ridge and strengthen over the next few days.

Computer model guidance suggests it will be steered to the west-northwest and then the northwest around the southern periphery of a subtropical ridge.
That track should take it in the general direction of Taiwan or the northern Philippines by early next week. It could strengthen to a typhoon, but it's too early to say exactly how intense it will become.
It looks like it will move along at a steady pace for a while, but it could slow down over time. All interests in these areas should become aware of the situation and make preparations if necessary.
The time frame on the possible arrival of this tropical system is early next week, but exact timing will become clearer by this weekend.
Keep checking back with weather.com for the latest on the development and track of this potentially threatening tropical system.
MORE: Typhoon Meranti- September 2016