Watch Issued: Flash Flooding Likely as Heavy Rain, Severe Weather Target Plains States

Brian Donegan
Published: September 23,2016
Heavy rain and severe thunderstorms will take aim on parts of the Plains states over the next few days. Flash flooding is the biggest concern, but some of the storms could also produce damaging winds and hail.
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has issued a severe thunderstorm watch valid until 10 PM MDT for western South Dakota. This watch area includes Rapid City, South Dakota. 
Sunday into Monday is when the threat for flash flooding increases, especially across the southern Plains in Texas and Oklahoma.
(MORE: View National Interactive Radar Map | Difference Between a Watch and a Warning)

Current Radar with Watches and Warnings

Below is our latest forecast thinking on the timing and magnitude of the severe weather threats through Saturday, followed by the heavy rain forecast and the risk for flash flooding.

Severe Weather Forecast

Friday Evening

• Forecast: Clusters of strong to severe storms will continue to develop Friday evening across parts of the northern and central Plains, including eastern Wyoming, southwest South Dakota, western Nebraska and northeast Colorado.
• Threats: Damaging wind gusts, large hail and flash flooding. A tornado or two cannot be ruled out. 
• Cities: Rapid City, South Dakota | North Platte, Nebraska

Friday Evening's Thunderstorm Forecast

Saturday

• Forecast: A large area of thunderstorms is expected to develop by early Saturday afternoon from the Upper Midwest into the central and southern Plains. This includes Minnesota, western Iowa, northwest Missouri, the eastern Dakotas, eastern Nebraska, central Kansas, central Oklahoma and parts of northwest Texas.
• Threats: Damaging wind gusts and flash flooding.
• Cities: Minneapolis | Omaha, Nebraska | Kansas City | Oklahoma City

Saturday's Thunderstorm Forecast

Heavy Rain, Flash Flood Forecast

In addition to severe storms the next couple of days, heavy rain and flash flooding will be a significant concern, especially Sunday into Monday across the southern Plains.
Areas of very heavy rain could set up over parts of Texas and Oklahoma Sunday and Monday, dumping 3 or more inches in just an hour or two. This yields a major concern for flash flooding across the region.
According to the National Weather Service's flash flood guidance, it will only take 2 to 5 inches of rain in three hours or less in Texas and Oklahoma to cause a flash flood. Within any clusters of training thunderstorms – storms that continuously redevelop over the same area – that amount of rain could certainly fall in less than three hours.

Rainfall Forecast

Where the heaviest rain falls, 3 to 5-plus inches of rain is possible through Monday. The most likely area for these hefty rain amounts is from central Texas into central Oklahoma, including Wichita Falls, Texas, and Tulsa, Oklahoma.
Outside of that heavy swath of rain, a general 1 to 3 inches of rain is expected across much of the central and southern Plains through Monday.

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PHOTOS: Plains, Midwest Mid-June 2016 Severe Weather and Flooding