Invest 94L Emerges Into the Southwest Gulf of Mexico; Tropical Development Possible

Jonathan Belles
Published: June 19,2016
A tropical low we've been tracking for several days has emerged into the southwest Gulf of Mexico, and will likely develop into a tropical depression some time by Monday. Even if it does not develop, the system will still bring heavy rain to eastern Mexico which could cause life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.
Now dubbed Invest 94L, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) has given this disturbed area of low pressure a high chance of development through the start of this week.
The well-defined tropical low is moving west through the Bay of Campeche (southwest Gulf of Mexico), a favored location for tropical cyclone development in June. Developments here can sometimes be quick, but these storms are typically short-lived due to their proximity to land.
A Hurricane Hunter flight has been scheduled for Sunday afternoon for the Bay of Campeche to investigate Invest 94-L, if necessary.
(MORE: What is an Invest?)

Infrared Satellite, Potential Tropical Development Area

The invest is currently flaring scattered thundershowers in the Bay of Campeche.
(MET 101: What is a Tropical Wave? | Africa's Role)
However, upper-level winds may lead to just enough wind shear (the change in wind speed and/or direction with height) to prevent thunderstorms from clustering, preventing further development.

Current Satellite, Wind Shear

Regardless of development, this system is expected to be pinned in the Bay of Campeche or southwest Gulf of Mexico thanks to an expansive area of high pressure aloft, responsible for an impressive Desert Southwest heat wave.
It is very unlikely to directly affect any U.S. interests in the western Gulf of Mexico, instead tracking into eastern Mexico or hovering in the southwest Gulf of Mexico.

Computer Model Track Forecast

The main impact from this system, therefore, will be an increase in showers and thunderstorms near the Mexican Gulf Coast. Any heavier areas of rainfall could cause life-threatening flash flooding and possible mudslides in eastern Mexico.
Despite that, there may be some peripheral effects for U.S. interests.
A surge of deep moisture typically occurs on the east and northeast flank of these southwest Gulf of Mexico tropical waves or lows.

Forecast Rainfall

Therefore, we can't rule out some locally heavy rain making it to parts of Deep South Texas.
(FORECAST: Cancun, Mexico | Veracruz, Mexico | S. Padre Island, Texas)
Also, an increase in onshore winds, leading to a risk of rip currents and elevated surf should arrive along the South Texas coast as soon as Sunday, continuing into at least Monday.
Don't cancel your beach plans, but just be aware of the rip current threat.
(MORE: The Underrated Danger or Rip Currents)

June Climatology

Tropical cyclone formation is fairly common in the Bay of Campeche and even over the Yucatán Peninsula during June.

Tropical Cyclone Origin Points

Typically in June, waters continue to warm around the Central America, and wind shear begins to decrease. Both of these factors begin to increase tropical activity.

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