Published: May 19,2016
This wet, stormy spring for parts of Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia and Florida will continue as severe thunderstorms and flash flooding are anticipated into late-week.
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has issued a severe thunderstorm watch until 3 p.m. CDT for southeast Texas. This includes Corpus Christi.
Severe weather has already hammered parts of the South since this past weekend. For a full recap of severe weather reports, scroll to our "reports" section below.
Latest Radar, Watches and Warnings
Below is a look ahead at the severe weather and flood threats into late-week.
Severe Storm Threat Forecast
Severe weather will remain a possibility across the South into late-week. The atmosphere will be very unstable with plenty of moisture to work with, so the strongest thunderstorms could produce damaging winds (58+ mph), large hail (1 inch diameter or larger) and a few tornadoes.A major outbreak of severe weather with dozens of tornadoes is not expected, however.
Here is an overview of where severe storms could develop.
Thursday
- The greatest chance of severe storms will be from south/southeast Texas into southwest Louisiana.
- Threats: Large hail, damaging winds and local flash flooding. A tornado or two will also be possible.
- Cities: Houston | Corpus Christi | San Antonio
Thursday's Thunderstorm Forecast
- The greatest chance of severe storms will be from southern Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama into the Florida Panhandle and portions of southwest Georgia.
- Threats: Large hail, damaging winds and local flash flooding. An isolated tornado can't be ruled out.
- Cities: New Orleans | Mobile | Tallahassee
Friday's Thunderstorm Forecast
Flood Threat Forecast
The threat for locally heavy rainfall from thunderstorm clusters has already begun from parts of the Rio Grande Valley of central Texas into southeast Texas, and more heavy rain is expected through Thursday.(MAPS: 7-Day Rainfall Forecast)
By Friday, as the upper-level disturbance finally begins moving east, the heavy-rain threat shifts into the Southeast, Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic states, with a threat of local flash flooding from Florida to the Delmarva Peninsula.
This includes recently-dry parts of the southern Appalachians and adjacent piedmont of the Carolinas, which were recently classified in moderate drought, according to the latest Drought Monitor analysis.
(FORECAST: San Antonio | Pensacola | Asheville | Roanoke | Washington D.C.
Forecast Rainfall Into This Weekend
Storm Reports Through Wednesday
On Tuesday, hail the size of baseballs (2.50") was reported in Upton County, Texas. There was one tornado report in Crockett County, Texas, but there were no reports of damage.(LATEST NEWS: Major Flooding Hits Southeast Texas)
Record rainfall was also reported in Vero Beach, Florida, on Tuesday which led to flooding there and in other parts of the state.
(MORE: Florida Storms Flip Plane, Produce Record Rainfall)
Monday, a cluster of severe t-storms rumbled through the panhandles of Texas and Oklahoma.
Hail up to 3 inches in diameter (somewhat larger than baseball size) damaged vehicle windshields southeast of Masterson, Texas.
There were eight reports of tornadoes according to the Storm Prediction Center, most staying out in open country. Trees were uprooted east and southeast of Canadian, Texas, from an apparent tornado.
Early Monday morning, major flash flooding hit the Corpus Christi area with numerous water rescues reported throughout the city. Water was reportedly over the roofs of cars in the southeast part of town. Some residents of Ingleside had to be rescued from their homes. One location southeast of Corpus Christi picked up 11.51 inches of rain in the 24 hours ending Monday morning. For more details on this story, see the link below.
On Saturday, water rescues from vehicles were reported on the southwest side of Houston in Bellaire, Meyerland, and Westbury. Locally 4-5 inches of rain fell in the area during a short period of time. On Sunday, roads were flooded near Marathon, Texas and near Kingsville, Texas.
(MORE: Is Houston America's Flood Capital?)
Setup
A series of disturbances will track through the Southern Plains into late-week as the southern branch of the jet stream remains active.A more pronounced upper-level southward dip in the jet stream will swing out of the Desert Southwest into the Plains, triggering what should be the most significant round of thunderstorms in the Southern Plains, Lower Mississippi Valley, Deep South and Gulf Coast through the end of this week.
A persistent south to southeast wind off the Gulf of Mexico will provide a plethora of moisture to fuel thunderstorm development. Therefore, any storms that form will have the potential to dump very heavy rainfall.
The setup for repeated rounds of thunderstorms with locally heavy rain in parts of the South through late-week.How Wet has it Been?
Houston has received over 74 inches of rain in the past 12 months, placing it as the wettest 12-month period ending on May 12 of any year.This shatters the previous record for this period of 68.25 inches by about 6 inches. Houston currently sits at 24.8 inches of precipitation above average for this 12-month period, with Abilene, Dallas, and Austin also 20 to 25 inches above average over the past 12 months.
Some rivers in east Texas, Louisiana and Arkansas are still above flood stage, and soil moisture remains much higher than average in these areas, meaning even relatively brief heavy rainfall may quickly run off and trigger flash flooding.
No comments:
Post a Comment