Published: May 4,2016
Atmospheric conditions will be more conducive for severe weather this weekend after a brief lull during the week.
A new storm system will emerge from the Rockies and it will pull moisture back into the Plains, increasing the chance for thunderstorms. Some of the thunderstorms will turn severe with large hail, damaging winds and possibly tornadoes.
Below is our latest thinking on the forecast this weekend and the setup illustrating why conditions will become more favorable for severe storms in the Plains.
Severe Weather Forecast
Saturday
- Forecast: Widely scattered thunderstorms, some severe, are likely to develop from parts of southwest Nebraska and southeast Wyoming through West Texas during the late afternoon and evening hours. A second area where a few severe thunderstorms are possible will stretch from western Illinois to parts of central and southern Ohio.
- Threats: Mainly large hail and damaging wind gusts. A few tornadoes can't be ruled out in the Plains.
- Cities: Dodge City, Kansas | Guymon, Oklahoma | Amarillo, Texas | Lubbock, Texas | Midland, Texas
Saturday's Forecast
Sunday
- Forecast: More numerous severe thunderstorms are expected to develop in the afternoon and evening hours from southern Nebraska down through central Texas.
- Threats: Large hail, damaging winds and some tornadoes can be expected.
- Cities: Wichita, Kansas | Oklahoma City | Wichita Falls,Texas | Dallas, Ft.Worth
Sunday's Forecast
Monday
- Forecast: Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to develop in the afternoon from Iowa down to southeast Texas
- Threats: Large hail, damaging winds and some tornadoes can be expected
- Cities: DesMoines, IA | Kansas City, Missouri | St. Louis | Little Rock, Arkansas | Houston
May is the month when tornadoes are most likely in the U.S., according to NOAA.
Severe thunderstorms, with large hail and damaging winds are also plentiful. Given the average position of the jet stream and where various air masses collide, locations from the southern Plains, down into Texas are where severe weather is most likely during the month.
Jet stream and upper low bring up moisture for thunderstorm development.The jet stream pattern is forming an "omega block". With this pattern big dips in the jet stream (troughs) set up around both coasts while a jet stream bulge (ridge) prevails through the central U.S. (forming the Greek letter Omega).
(MORE: Omega Block Brings Changes in the U.S.)
Clouds and showers are in the forecast near the Atlantic and Pacific coasts. Under the large high pressure ridge in the central U.S., air sinks and warms resulting in warm temperatures and dry conditions that are unfavorable for thunderstorm development. That all changes as we move toward the weekend as the high pressure ridge begins to weaken and slide eastward.
As the ridge slides eastward, an area of low pressure aloft and its associated trough, will nudge slowly eastward through the Rockies. At the surface, low pressure will form just east of the Rockies on Saturday and a dry line will press eastward into the western High Plains and West Texas. A dry line is a boundary of converging winds that separates dry air from moist air and is often a triggering mechanism for thunderstorms that could turn severe.
This system will move slowly over the weekend so the severe threat will only move slightly eastward. There are some slight differences in the computer model guidance on how far east that threat will be on Mother's Day. The tornado threat doesn't appear to be extremely high, but some tornadoes are possible.
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