Tropical Cyclone Komen to Soak Waterlogged Bangladesh, Myanmar; 27 Already Reported Dead

Nick Wiltgen
Published: July 29,2015
A slow-moving monsoon depression that has already unleashed lethal amounts of rain in South Asia formed into a tropical cyclone over the northern Bay of Bengal Wednesday. The cyclonic storm, now named Komen, threatens to further drench regions that are already reeling from flooding and mudslides, which have claimed at least 27 lives in two countries.
For about a week, heavy rainfall has been pounding southern parts of Bangladesh and parts of neighboring Myanmar thanks to a weak area of low pressure – designated a "depression" by meteorologists in that region – that formed over Bangladesh in association with the seasonal monsoon.

Extreme Rainfall

Even for a region where average July rainfall exceeds 600 millimeters (2 feet), the rains have been exceptional. The coastal city of Chittagong reported 879 millimeters (34.61 inches) of rain in just a four-day period July 24 through 27.
Much of southeastern Bangladesh has seen repeated heavy rainfall on daily basis over the past week. The results have been deadly. Five people died in a landslide in Cox's Bazar Monday according to the Bangladesh-based Daily Star. Four others were pulled from the mud alive. Two other people drowned in flooding elsewhere in the town of 52,000 residents, the report said. Cox's Bazar has reported more than 1,000 millimeters (40 inches) of rain since July 17, exceeding its already high monthly average rainfall of 924.6 millimeters (36.40 inches) according to Bangladesh Meteorological Department climate data.
While official rainfall totals are harder to come by in Myanmar, the effects have been as devastating or worse. At least 20 people are reported dead due to flooding in western and central parts of that country, and some 17,000 homes had been destroyed as of Monday from the days-long deluge, according to China's state-run Xinhua news agency.

Current Status and Forecast Path

Current Enhanced Satellite

The monsoonal depression that spawned Komen moved offshore from Bangladesh before strengthening over the Bay of Bengal, but it has already begun to reverse course and move back toward shore. The center is expected to move back over Bangladesh before curling westward, eventually taking it into parts of India where it should dissipate.
The track is likely to bring more torrential rainfall to the already-stricken region, which consists of low flood-prone coastal plains in southeast Bangladesh and a series of landslide-prone ridges from the interior of that area into western Myanmar.

Rainfall Forecast

With several rivers already out of their banks, the additional rain will merely aggravate ongoing flooding.
Worse, as the cyclone drifts back north, onshore winds will expand north for the west-facing shores of southeast Bangladesh. The Bangladesh Meteorological Department is warning of storm surge 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels in its portion of that region, leading to saltwater flooding of low-elevation areas, and further preventing bloated rivers from emptying into the sea.
Stay with The Weather Channel and weather.com as we continue to follow this dangerous situation in South and Southeast Asia.
MORE: Cyclone Viyaru (formerly Mahasen), Bangladesh, May 2013