Life-Threatening Rain Focuses on Eastern India; Drier Pattern to Follow

By Kristina Pydynowski, Senior Meteorologist

July 31,2015; 10:52PM,EDT

 

Life-threatening heavy rainfall will continue to focus on northeastern India, Bangladesh and western Myanmar into Monday before a drier weather pattern sets in.
What was once-Tropical Cyclone 02B will remain the culprit behind the torrential rain that will spread westward across northeastern India into Monday. Rainfall totals will reach or exceed 150 mm (6 inches), including in Kolkata and Raipur.
The potential exists for some communities to be inundated with half or even all of the 150 mm (6 inches) in 24 hours.

Such rainfall is sure to trigger dangerous and life-threatening flash flooding. That is especially true where the ground is already saturated from recent rain.
Jamshedpur, India, recorded more than 230 mm (9 inches) of rain earlier this week. A weather observation site near Chittagong, Bangladesh, has been slammed by 1,077 mm (42.42 inches) of rain in the eight days from July 23 to July 30. A total of 335 mm (13.17 inches) fell in just one day.
For rain-weary northeastern India, AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Jason Nicholls states that some relief will come next week. "Eastern areas will have a wet first few days of the month, but rains look to ease back starting later next week."

Floodwaters Rip Through Streets In Pakistan

Rain has already diminished around Karachi, Pakistan, and neighboring parts of India, a trend that will continue through a good deal of August.
"The remnants of Tropical Cyclone 02B look to reach really only Madhya Pradesh in central India, so impacts may be minor, if any, in western India," continued Nicholls.
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Karachi had a huge surplus rain from July 23 to 25, totaling around 75 mm (3 inches). Although not an amount many locations would consider catastrophic, this recent rainfall total is more than all of the rain Karachi received in 2013 and 2014 combined. The periods of heavy rain brought both power outages and major travel problems with flooding roads, according to The Siasat Daily.
Bhuj received more than 432 mm (17 inches) of rain from Monday into Tuesday, more than their average yearly total of 373.7 mm (14.72 inches). The rain essentially shut off at midweek.
A monsoonal low that was responsible for soaking in Karachi and Bhuj and its remains will continue to threaten central Pakistan into this weekend with flooding downpours.
"Any rain in Pakistan is over the mountains in the far north next week," added Nicholls.

The turn to drier weather in Pakistan is what will be the theme for the nation and western India through most of August. While there will still be occasional showers and thunderstorms, especially in the mountains and the western coast of India, "most of August looks drier than normal," continued Nicholls.
Nicholls quickly added that there are signs that the monsoon will not stay quiet through the rest of the summer.
"I am slightly concerned for another pulse of instability in the Indian Ocean toward the end of August or early September which may give the monsoon one more late-season boost," he said.
"Monsoonal moisture plays a big role in crop farming across the country and the economy highly depends on it," stated AccuWeather Meteorologist Jordan Root. "While the rain is welcome, too much can cause crop damage and create flooding. On the other end, too little will induce drought which can devastate crops and drinking supplies."
Meteorologists Eric Leister and Courtney Spamer contributed to this story.