Record Rains Trigger Dangerous Flooding in India, Pakistan; Rain to Dwindle in August

By Eric Leister, Meteorologist

July 28,2015; 11:15PM,EDT

 

 

Monsoonal rain has increase across India and southeastern Pakistan over the past few days resulting in record rainfall and flooding.
This uptick in rainfall is being generated primarily by a pair of monsoon lows that will continue to impact northeastern India and Bangladesh as well as northwestern India and eastern Pakistan for much of this week.
After lessening for much of July, monsoonal rain and thunderstorms have returned in full swing throughout India and will continue to frequent the nation daily through the end of the month.
"The wet pattern may even spill into the first full week of August," stated AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Jason Nicholls.

The first low in northwestern India and southeastern Pakistan will continue to bring rounds of heavy rainfall to those regions. The Indian states of Rajasthan, Gujarat and western Madhya Pradesh will receive daily rain and thunderstorms that will total over 500 mm (20 inches) in some areas through Thursday.
Bhuj received more than 432 mm (17 inches) of rain from Monday into Tuesday, more than their average yearly total of 373.7 mm (14.72 inches).
The low in northwestern India will also continue to bring downpours to southeastern Pakistan, supplying Karachi and Hyderabad with more rainfall and the threat for flooding.
Karachi had a huge surplus rain from Thursday through Saturday, totaling around 75 mm (3.0 inches). Although not an amount many locations would consider catastrophic, this recent rainfall total is more than all of the rain Karachi received in 2013 and 2014 combined. The periods of heavy rain brought both power outages and major travel problems with flooding roads, according to The Siasat Daily.
Hyderabad got into the rain Monday with more than 50 mm (2 inches) falling in parts of the city. Significant rainfall and flooding remain a threat through the middle of the week before the monsoonal low moves into northern Pakistan.

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Meanwhile, the second low which has already brought flooding to Bangladesh and Myanmar will slowly move westward as torrential rains fall from Myanmar to northeastern India this week.
If this second low sits across the Bay of Bengal long enough, there is the possibility that it will develop into a tropical cyclone prior to moving inland across Odisha and West Bengal. Regardless, this storm will bring a significant flooding threat to the region, including Kolkata.
"Monsoonal moisture plays a big role in crop farming across the country and the economy highly depends on it," stated AccuWeather Meteorologist Jordan Root. "While the rain is welcome, too much can cause crop damage and create flooding. On the other end, too little will induce drought which can devastate crops and drinking supplies."
"The potential exists for some areas to pick up 250 mm (10 inches) of rain in a single day," added AccuWeather Meteorologist Rob Richards in regards to the heaviest downpours the tropical low may unleash.
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"New Delhi will receive some rain through the start of August, but the heaviest rain will remain to the south," continued Nicholls.
Toward the end of the first full week in August, Nicholls expects the monsoon to quiet down across India and stay quiet, leading to August being drier than normal. The pulse of instability that is helping to reactivate the monsoon will depart, resulting in less rain and fewer thunderstorms.
"All monsoons have these breaks and active periods," stated Nicholls. "However, during most El Nino years [as what this year is], the drier breaks tend to be longer and lead to drier-than-normal conditions."
As the monsoonal rain and thunderstorms lessen, heat can build and put the region further at risk for drought.
Senior Meteorologist Kristina Pydynowski contributed to this story.