Severe Weather Outbreak, Including Tornadoes, Possible This Week in Midwest, Plains, South

Jon Erdman
Published: April 6,2015



 
True to April's dangerous reputation, a widespread, multi-day severe weather outbreak, including tornadoes, is possible this week in parts of the South and Midwest.
(MORE: Dr. Greg Forbes' TOR:CON Tornado Threat Forecasts)

The meteorological ingredients that may be in play for the potential mid-week severe weather outbreak.

Meteorologists use pattern recognition, or the general forecast orientation of upper-air and surface weather features, to help identify the potential for high-impact weather events  – severe weather outbreaks, winter storms, cold air outbreaks and heat waves –  several days out.
The pattern potentially setting up this week has some similarities to a classic heartland spring severe weather outbreak.
First, a bullish southward plunge of the jet stream, or trough, will carve into the western U.S. early in the week.
In the atmosphere's lowest levels, progressively warmer and more humid air will flow northward from the Gulf of Mexico into parts of the Plains and Mississippi Valley.
With that vigorous jet stream overlapping warm, humid air and surface features – such as a drylines that divide High Plains dry air from more humid air to the east – and a warm front helping to lift the unstable air, the stage may be set for severe thunderstorms with large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes.
Early in the week, there may be pulses of thunderstorms each day through Tuesday, particularly along a quasi-stationary front oriented roughly west-to-east from the Plains into the Ohio Valley. It's not out of the question that a few of these could reach severe limits.
The larger concern for a possible severe weather outbreak is when the western U.S. trough pushes east into the Plains, bringing the core of colder air aloft and the strongest jet stream winds over the warm, humid near-surface air.
As always, there is still some uncertainty in the exact details of this possible multi-day severe weather outbreak. This includes the magnitude of the tornado threat and the location of the greatest severe threat each day.
(MAPS: 10-day Forecast)
For now, here is an outlook based on our latest forecast thinking, subject to change.

• Wednesday: Scattered severe storms possible in the central and southern Plains along the dryline and near the surface low/stationary front. The threat of severe storms may extend as far east as the mid-Mississippi Valley and into portions of the Ohio Valley. Some supercells with tornadoes possible.
• Potential Wednesday Threat Cities: Wichita, Kansas | Oklahoma City | Kansas City

Wednesday's Threat Area

• Thursday: More widespread severe thunderstorms possible from the central/southern Plains to the Mississippi Valley and southern Great Lakes. Some supercells with tornadoes possible.
• Potential Thursday Threat Cities: St. Louis | Chicago | Little Rock, Arkansas

Thursday's Threat Area

• Friday: Scattered severe storms possible with damaging winds and hail from the Mid-Atlantic into parts of the Southeast.
• Potential Friday Threat Cities: Washington, D.C. | Richmond, Virginia | Raleigh, North Carolina

Friday's Threat Area

Also, with this slow-moving western trough and the east-west frontal boundary in play, heavy rain and flash flooding could become serious threats, particularly in parts of the mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys saturated from heavy rain this past Thursday night and Friday.
(MORE: Louisville Water Rescues, Homes Evacuated | Photos | Vehicle a Flood Danger)

Model Rainfall Forecast Through Friday

Critical details will come into greater focus in the days ahead, so check back with us at The Weather Channel and weather.com for the latest on this potential severe weather outbreak.
Do you know where to go in your home, apartment, condo, or place of business if a tornado warning is issued?
(MORE: 7 Things You Should Never Forget When Tornadoes Threaten | Watches and Warnings Explained)
Now is a good time to refresh your tornado safety plan, before a warning is issued.

MORE: Tornadoes Strike Oklahoma (March 25, 2015)