By Kristina Pydynowski, Senior Meteorologist
August 23,2014; 7:47PM,EDT
Tropical Storm Cristobal is expected to take shape later this weekend, then impact the Atlantic beaches and potentially other parts of the southeastern United States next week.
Tropical Depression Four formed over the Turks and Caicos Islands on Saturday afternoon. All interests across the southeastern U.S., the Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands should be keeping a close eye on the area of disturbed weather in the southwestern Atlantic.
Regardless of when Cristobal is named, torrential downpours, gusty squalls and rough surf will continue to spread from Hispaniola northwestward into the southern and central Bahamas as the weekend draws to a close. Some drenching showers and thunderstorms will even reach eastern Cuba.
"Heavy rainfall will raise the risk of flash flooding across the region, and in the case of Hispaniola may lead to roads being washed out and perhaps mudslides", stated AccuWeather.com Meteorologist Randy Adkins
Damaging winds will become an increasing concern for the Bahamas as Cristobal strengthens early next week.
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Beyond the weekend, what should be Cristobal is expected to track over or near the Bahamas early next week with torrential wind and winds strong enough to cause tree damage, some structural damage and power outages.
Cristobal should then track parallel to the U.S. southeast coast around Wednesday and Thursday, when the window will be open for Cristobal to become a very strong tropical storm or hurricane.
A dip in the jet stream dropping southward along the East Coast of the U.S. should draw Cristobal northward through early next week.
It is not out of the question that the evolving Cristobal misses that connection and instead takes a run at the waters off the western coast of Florida at midweek. Such a scenario would spread heavy rain and strong winds across the Florida Peninsula.
However, latest indications point toward Cristobal eventually paralleling the southeast U.S. as the most anticipated track.
Cristobal would be riding along the western periphery of the Atlantic ridge of high pressure at that time. How close Cristobal comes to the southeastern U.S. will depend on how far west the ridge builds.
Cristobal could come far enough west to ride along the Southeast coast or may just graze the beaches with its outermost rain and wind. It is just as possible that the storm remains offshore.
"Even if a tropical storm or hurricane was to stay east of the east coast of the U.S., a strong system would generate swells that propagate outward that could reach the shoreline in the form of rough surf and strong rip currents during the last week of August," warned AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski.
Beachgoers and operators of small craft trying to get in one last vacation before summer comes to a close would be at risk for such hazardous seas at the Southeast beaches during the early and middle part of the new week.
The danger will spread to the Northeast beaches toward the Labor Day weekend. However, the same dip in the jet stream set to erase the impending surge of warmth in the Northeast should work to protect the Northeast from Cristobal.
The latest thinking puts Cristobal on a track north of Bermuda, but the potential for the storm to take a quicker turn to the northeast and take aim at Bermuda continues to be monitored.
While the Atlantic is coming to life, the eastern Pacific remains very active. Out of the three current storms, Marie is set to become a major hurricane before the weekend comes to a close.
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