September 9,2013; 9:10PM,EDT
The Atlantic Ocean has seen lower-than-normal tropical activity and the same can be said about the Western Pacific. Typically 26 named storms occur a year, of which 16 usually become typhoons. This year there have been only 15 tropical depressions, and even fewer named storms and typhoons.
Despite a relatively slow start, the Western Pacific is showing some signs of life, similar to the Atlantic. An area of disturbed weather south and east of Guam may become the 16th depression in the Western Pacific by the middle of the week.
This area of thunderstorms continue to show signs of better organization and needs to be watched. The abundance of convection in conjunction with warm waters and low wind shear make conditions favorable for development.
RELATED:
Guam Weather Center
Western Pacific Tropical Center
AccuWeather Hurricane Center
The system, which would be named Man-yi, is expected to take a track to the north and west and could bring squally weather to Guam and neighboring islands as the storm starts to strengthen. Guam typically sees a typhoon every few years and the island is usually well prepared.
By week's end, the system is likely to push in the direction of Japan.
AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist Eric Wanenchak explains, "while the exact track of the storm is hard to pin down at this time, a track somewhere between Taipei and Tokyo is likely." Those in Japan should keep a close eye on this system.
Conditions for development are very favorable once the system moves into the Philippine Sea south of Japan. Wanenchak notes, "the water temperatures are 3-4C above normal and the wind shear is quite low. Both of these elements make for ideal strengthening conditions." Therefore, it is a possibility that this system could become a typhoon by the end of the week.
By AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist Alan Reppert; Meteorologist Dan DePodwin contributed to this story.
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