By Brian Edwards, Meteorologist
September 30,2013; 5:52PM,EDT
An area of thunderstorms to the south of Jamaica could organize into a tropical system this week. Environmental conditions are somewhat favorable for further development over the next few days.
This feature will slowly lift northward through early this week. Drenching thunderstorms will become more widespread across Jamaica and parts of Cuba as a result and localized flash flooding will threaten the region.
By midweek, this feature will then track across central or western Cuba before heading into the Gulf of Mexico.
This Monday, Sept. 30, 2013, satellite image of the Caribbean disturbance is from NOAA.The system's strength and track in the long term is far from set in stone at this time.
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AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist Rob Miller stated that "the eventual track of the system will depend on whether or not the system gets picked up by a dip in the jet stream over the western Atlantic."
However, as the system moves northward into the central or eastern Gulf of Mexico later this week, disruptive winds are expected to weaken, favoring possible development. Water temperatures are also warm enough to support development.
Regardless of whether or not a named tropical system forms, tropical moisture will once again enhance rainfall across Florida. Flooding downpours could be a major concern, especially since the ground is already saturated.
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