Potential Tropical Troubles in the Caribbean Early Next Week

By Brian Edwards, Meteorologist

September 28,2013; 5:02PM,EDT

 

 

AccuWeather.com meteorologists are monitoring an area of thunderstorms in the southwestern Caribbean Sea to the south of Jamaica. Environmental conditions are somewhat favorable for further development over the next few days.
This feature will slowly churn in the southwestern Caribbean through the remainder of the weekend before lifting northward Sunday night into Monday.
Drenching thunderstorms will begin to affect Jamaica by Sunday afternoon and parts of Cuba by Monday. Localized flash flooding is possible across these regions.
This feature will then do one of two things, either track northward across Cuba and through the Bahamas or it could head up into the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist, Rob Miller stated that "the eventual track of the system will depend on whether or not the system gets picked up by a dip in the jet stream over the western Atlantic."
Miller says that if the feature takes a track up through Cuba and into the Bahamas, then development would be limited due to interaction with land.

However, if the system moves into the eastern Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week, development would be much more likely due to warm water temperatures and light winds aloft.
Regardless of whether or not a tropical system forms next week; heavy, flooding downpours would affect Jamaica and parts of Cuba later Sunday into Monday. The heavy rain threat could shift into parts of Florida or the Bahamas by the middle of next week.
If the system would develop, it would likely take until Monday or Tuesday at the earliest due to land interactions with Jamaica and parts of Cuba.

The latest infrared satellite image shows showers and thunderstorms beginning to organize in the southwest Caribbean Sea.
AccuWeather.com meteorologists will continue to monitor this system over the next few days as it churns in the Caribbean Sea.