Tropical Storm Forms in Gulf, Threatens Flooding in Mexico

By Alex Sosnowski, Expert Senior Meteorologist

September 11,2013; 10:55AM,EDT

 

 

The southwestern Gulf of Mexico has given birth to Tropical Storm Ingrid in the Atlantic. The system will then spread flooding downpours into eastern Mexico and perhaps needed rain into South Texas.
Because this may be a very slow-moving system, there is the potential for very damaging, and life-threatening flooding in portions of eastern Mexico.
As expected Tropical Depression Ten formed and then became Tropical Storm Ingrid over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, known as the Bay of Campeche.
There have been three active, tropical systems in the Atlantic basin simultaneously Thursday into Friday: Humberto (hurricane/tropical storm), Gabrielle (tropical storm/depression) and Ingrid (tropical storm/depression).
Clouds, showers and thunderstorms can be seen gathering over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico (Bay of Campeche), Thursday afternoon, Sept. 12, 2013.
The greatest impacts from Ingrid will be heavy rainfall and the potential for flooding and mudslides.
A general 6 to 12 inches of rain are likely to fall over the Mexico states of Veracruz and southern and central Tamaulipas, into the first part of next week. The cities of Veracruz, Poza Rica, Ciudad Victoria and Tampico, as well as highways 101 and 180 are likely to be affected by travel disruptions.

According to Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski, "Some moisture from Eastern Pacific Tropical Depression Thirteen is likely to converge with Ingrid's moisture over the central part of Mexico and could lead to disastrous flooding."
There is the potential for one to two feet of rain, especially over the Sierra Madre Oriental as Ingrid drifts inland before breaking up.
Depending on the strength of Ingrid, there is also the potential for rough surf and seas over part of the western Gulf, which could potentially disrupt bathers, fishing and petroleum operations in the region for a time this weekend.
There is a chance Ingrid becomes a hurricane before moving onshore by early next week over northeastern Mexico.
Small craft operators should exercise caution over the Bay of Campeche through the weekend as the weather can deteriorate quickly with the development of heavy squalls.
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Part of eastern Mexico has been hit by multiple tropical systems with flooding in recent weeks including Fernand and Tropical Depression Eight.
Ingrid also brings an opportunity for needed rainfall farther north along the Mexico coast and perhaps as far north as South Texas, depending on its track. Any reasonable rainfall will be welcomed by many residential and agricultural interests over the Rio Grande Valley.
From 2 to 4 inches of rain may fall over extreme South Texas into the middle of next week.
"Enough rain could fall to raise water levels on the lower part of the Rio Grande River," Kottlowski said.

More precise details as to the amount of rainfall and magnitude of problems will unfold this weekend as the system develops and establishes a track over the Bay of Campeche.
In the meantime, enough rain capable of causing flash flooding and mud slides will occur over the Mexico states of Yucatan, Quintana Roo, Campeche and Tabasco into Friday with local rainfall amounts of 6 inches.