Caribbean, Gulf May Yield More Tropical Systems This Week

By Alex Sosnowski, Expert Senior Meteorologist

September 16,2013; 9:30PM,EDT

 

 

As this week progresses, one or more tropical disturbances originating from the Caribbean will throw drenching rain northward into part of the southern United States, including Texas and Florida, as this week progresses. The rain could break drought conditions in some areas.
The area from the northwestern Caribbean to the southern Gulf of Mexico has been a tropical hot spot this season and could be a breeding ground for the next several tropical systems in the Atlantic basin.
An overall area of disturbed weather will remain in this region that could generate from one to three systems through the end of the month.
Regardless of development or not, copious amounts of moisture will be flung out of the tropics and into part of the Southern U.S.

Texas, South Central U.S.
Rain without a powerful tropical system would be a good thing for much of Texas, Louisiana, Arkansas and Oklahoma.
According to Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski, "One system is likely to take a slow drift toward the west-northwest from the Caribbean, across the Yucatan Peninsula and into the southwestern Gulf this week."

While there is a chance that this system slowly develops, the most important impact worth monitoring is the rainfall it produces and where that rainfall will go.
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Even if the system fails to develop, a significant amount of moisture is likely to drift toward northeastern Mexico initially.
This new rain on top of what Ingrid delivers could bring a new wave of flooding problems to part of northeastern Mexico or make existing flooding problems worse.

This time, there is also the potential for a large amount of moisture being drawn farther north into Texas and the South Central states in general starting Thursday and continuing into the weekend.
While the pattern will bring a risk of flash and urban flooding problems, enough rain could fall to impact or break drought conditions.
A system dropping slowly southeastward from the central and northern Rockies may help to draw up this moisture late this week into the coming weekend.
Intense rainfall from Ingrid has been focused over Mexico with lesser rounds of showers and thunderstorms only affecting areas as far north as South Texas.
San Antonio and Houston have received only about one-third of their normal rainfall since June 1. Meanwhile, Oklahoma City, Okla., and Dallas have received only about 20 percent of their normal rainfall in the past month. Little Rock, Ark., has received only 1 percent of its normal rain in the past 30 days.
Some of this heavy rain could also fall on parts of New Mexico, which has also been experiencing flash flooding over the past week not associated with Ingrid.
Albuquerque, N.M., has received nearly three times its normal rainfall of about 1 inch since Sept. 1. During the same period Truth of Consequences, N.M., has received four times its normal rainfall of 1.50 inches.
South Florida
The same broad area of disturbed weather could generate a couple more disturbances later in the month. Steering winds over the region could be such to drive some of that moisture toward the northeast across Cuba, the Bahamas and perhaps South Florida.
The area from Key West to Miami and West Palm Beach have the potential to receive several inches of rain through midweek.
"An area of disturbed weather over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico is already pumping moisture into South Florida this week. Frequent showers and thunderstorms are in store from the Keys to Miami, Homestead, Fort Lauderdale, West Palm Beach and Naples," Kottlowski said.
The entire area from the northwest Caribbean to the southern Gulf of Mexico, the Florida Straits and waters just east of Florida will be watched closely for tropical development this week and the next.

"Disruptive winds and dry air will tend to limit development farther east over the tropical Atlantic to the coast of Africa," according to Kottlowski, "However, conditions will remain more favorable over the southwestern part of the Atlantic basin during the next couple of weeks."
Elsewhere in the Atlantic, Humberto has regained tropical storm status in the middle of the basin but is not expected to directly impact land areas through Friday.