Atlantic Tropical Disturbances to Bring Downpours to Antilles

By Alex Sosnowski, Expert Senior Meteorologist

September 2,2013; 6:43PM,EDT

 

 

 

A double-barreled slow-moving tropical disturbance will bring downpours and locally gusty squalls to some of the islands of the northern Caribbean this week.
There is good news for folks who live on or are heading to the Atlantic tropical islands in the short range. There are no systems on the maps in the Atlantic as of Monday, Sept. 2, 2013, that are showing signs of explosive development.
However, showers and thunderstorms associated with a couple of weak tropical disturbances will drift toward the west-northwest across the Caribbean this week.
Several areas in the Atlantic, including two systems (one near 65 west longitude and one near 55 west longitude) are being watched this week for slow development.
The duo has the potential to bring very isolated disruptions, flash flooding and rough seas and surf.
Rainfall in some areas has been near to above normal since the start of August, despite the lack of tropical storms or powerful hurricanes. So, where downpours persist in these already wet areas, such as Puerto Rico and the United States Virgin Islands, the risk for flash flooding will be higher.
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Timing of the Rainfall

Sporadic downpours and locally gusty squalls will affect parts of the Leeward and Windward islands to start the week.
The activity will spread to the British and U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico during the next couple of days.
During the middle of this week, shower and thunderstorm activity is likely to kick up over Hispaniola and the Turks and Caicos.
Later in the week, the Bahamas may experience an uptick in showers and locally gusty squalls.
Map Discussion
Typically in the Caribbean islands, a wave of showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical disturbance swings through every three or four days, lasting a day or so.
However, in this case, the activity may linger for several days, because a broad area of moisture will follow the double-barreled feature.
The area from the northeast Caribbean to the area near and east of the Bahamas, along with several other areas in the Atlantic Basin, will be watched for slow tropical development.
Since last week, the Atlantic has been only a couple of clicks away from development. Boating and shipping interests should monitor the tropical Atlantic on a daily basis.
The pockets of disruptive winds and dry air near weak disturbances now will not likely last much longer.
However, at least in the short-range, there are no major concerns with the atmosphere keeping its foot on the brakes as we approach the peak of the hill for typical hurricane development.