Tropical Cyclone 5B in Bay of Bengal May Become 'Vardah' and Threaten India This Weekend

Linda Lam
Published: December 7,2016
Tropical Cyclone 5B has formed in the southeastern Bay of Bengal and is expected to continue to strengthen over the next few days. Impacts are possible in eastern India as early as this weekend.
As this system gains strength, it will eventually receive the name "Vardah."
Deadly flash floods, due to heavy rain associated with this system, have already been experienced in southern Thailand. More than a dozen people have died in these floods, according to Reuters.
(MORE: Which Countries Get Hit Most By Tropical Cyclones?)

Rescue workers search for two missing boys who went missing during a flash flood in the southern Thai province of Pattani, Dec. 6, 2016. Days of torrential rain and flooding have killed at least 14 people in southern Thailand, with authorities declaring much of the region a disaster zone.
(TUWAEDANIYA MERINGING/AFP/Getty Images)

Train service has also been disrupted in the region as tracks have been damaged by flood water, the Bangkok Post reported.
Over 12 inches of rain was measured in the southeastern part of Nakhon Si Thammarat Province at Hua Sai at the end of last week.
This is a popular time of year for tourists to visit the southern islands of Thailand, and there is concern that the flooding will also impact tourism.

Forecast

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) said Tropical Cyclone 5B formed Wednesday and had maximum sustained winds of tropical storm force.
The JTWC forecasts the system to reach the equivalent of a Category 1 or 2 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale in the days ahead. It will eventually get the name "Vardah," the next name in the North Indian Ocean Basin list.
A general track to the northwest is anticipated over the next few days. However, there are some differences in the forecast models regarding both strength and track of this system, especially by this weekend.

Current Satellite

Regardless, heavy rain is possible through midweek for Andaman and Nicobar Islands, along with some gusty winds and rough seas.
(FORECAST: Port Blair | Visakhapatnam | Chennai)
Eastern coastal areas of India will need to be on alert beginning this weekend for the possibility of a tropical cyclone impacting the region.

Projected Path and Intensity

There is uncertainty on how strong this system will be when it approaches the coast of India. Assuming this system tracks close to the coast or moves inland, heavy rainfall is possible, which would bring the threat of flooding this weekend.
Check back to weather.com for updates on this developing system.
MORE: India Flooding, Varanasi, Allahabad