Published: June 11,2016
Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop Saturday for portions of the Northeast, as building heat and humidity interact with an active jet stream.
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The main severe threats will be damaging winds and large hail. The tornado potential appears to be low, but isolated tornadoes can still occur in these situations, particularly with discrete rotating thunderstorms in the late afternoon and evening before activity consolidates into clusters and lines of storms.
Current Radar with Watches and Warnings
Current Radar with Watches and Warnings
Below is our latest forecast thinking on the timing and magnitude of the severe threats, followed by the severe weather setup.
(INTERACTIVE: Your 7-Day Severe Weather Outlook)
Severe Weather Forecast
Saturday- Northeast: Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely from eastern Ohio and Pennsylvania eastward into New Jersey, central and southern New York and southwestern New England. Again, the main threats will be damaging straight-line winds and hail, but a tornado or two can't be ruled out.
- Northern High Plains: Individual late afternoon t-storms should consolidate into a late night cluster of severe t-storms in the northern High Plains of eastern Montana, and western North Dakota. Large hail, damaging winds and isolated tornadoes are possible.
- Cities: Pittsburgh | New York | Philadelphia | Washington, DC
Saturday's Thunderstorm Forecast
Severe Setup
The jet stream pattern will be quite exaggerated to start the weekend. A large ridge (northward bulge in the jet stream) will build into western and central Canada. At the same time a trough (southward dip in the jet stream) will be located just off the East Coast of the U.S.Mid to upper-level winds from the Great Lakes to the Mid-Atlantic will be racing from the northwest to the southeast (often referred to as a "northwest flow" pattern). This pattern is not uncommon in June when high pressure ridges become stronger, but significant troughs can still be in place farther east.
Occasionally, a strong disturbance (or a series of disturbances) can ride down the eastern side of the ridge toward the trough. The disturbance gains strength as it approaches the trough. At the surface, temperature and moisture contrasts along a frontal boundary become enhanced. This creates a more favorable environment for thunderstorm development.
The setup for severe thunderstorms through Saturday couldn't be more classic for June.On Saturday, a strong disturbance aloft and a frontal boundary at the surface will enhance the threat of severe weather for parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic.
Storm Reports
Friday, June 10
Thunderstorms erupted in the afternoon from southeast Minnesota to northern Wisconsin and rapidly consolidated into a line which then pushed eastward. Some storms turned severe with damaging winds. There were numerous reports of trees and power lines down.Thunderstorm winds were clocked at 76 mph at Estherville Airport in Iowa.
Thursday, June 9
Severe thunderstorms were most concentrated in the northern High Plains, primarily in eastern Montana and North Dakota.A supercell thunderstorm tracking about 240 miles in about 6 hours produced up to baseball-size, wind-driven hail, damaging crops, busting out windows in at least four homes, and smashing vehicle windshields in Garfield County, Montana.
Photo above of the Garfield County, Montana, supercell was shared to The Weather Channel Facebook page by "Conquer the Storm"Thunderstorm winds were clocked at 77 mph at Minot Air Force Base, North Dakota.
Wednesday, June 8
A cluster of severe thunderstorms produced a swath of damaging winds in parts of the Mid-Atlantic states.(RECAP: Thousands Without Power in New Jersey, Philly)
Roof damage was reported in southern New Jersey, and over 62,000 customers were without power at one point in the Philadelphia metro area.
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