By Alex Sosnowski, AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist
June 5,2016; 12:30AM,EDT
As Bonnie continues to shift away from the Eastern Seaboard, there are signs of possible tropical development in the Caribbean.
A disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms is currently showing signs of development in the central Caribbean Sea, and regardless of whether it will be able to strengthen into a tropical storm, it will bring flooding downpours and rough seas to Florida early this week.
This disturbance will be picked up by steering winds which will guide the feature northeastward near the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico as the weekend comes to an close.
At this time, the most likely path will take the system onshore along the west coast of Florida, across the Florida Peninsula and into the Atlantic during the first part of next week.
Latest indications point toward the system moving inland north of the Tampa area Monday afternoon into Monday night.
"The system could be a tropical depression or tropical storm by the time it reaches Florida," according to AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski.
"We feel that there is a 90% chance this disturbance will become an organized tropical system in the form of at least a depression and a 70% chance of this becoming a named tropical storm." he said. The next tropical storm in the Atlantic basin will acquire the name Colin.
The budding tropical system will first cause torrential downpours, locally gusty thunderstorms and rough surf to develop this weekend in parts of southeastern Mexico, Belize, the Cayman Islands and western Cuba.
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As the system takes shape over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, seas in the region will build. Dangerous seas and surf conditions could develop, especially along the Florida Gulf Coast.
The risk of flooding downpours and locally damaging thunderstorms will ramp up over the entire Florida Peninsula Monday and into Tuesday as the system begins to organize and move northeastward.
There is the potential for 6-12 inches of rain to fall and trigger flooding so severe that evacuations could be ordered.
"Residents and visitors of Tampa, Orlando, Daytona Beach, Naples and Miami should prepare for the potential flooding downpours even if the system never becomes a tropical storm and acquires a name," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Kristina Pydynowski said.
"If the system strengthens into a tropical storm, it would be accompanied onshore by an area of winds capable of causing power outages and tree damage," she said. "An isolated tornado may spin up east and southeast of the system's center as it crosses the Florida Peninsula."
Winds driving water from the Gulf of Mexico onshore also threaten to flood Florida's west coast beaches, near and south of where the system comes onshore.
How much rain falls, how rough surf conditions get and the strength of gusty winds will depend on the track and strength of the system, once the system forms.
As the system moves into the southwestern Atlantic Ocean, a period of building seas, rough surf and rip currents are likely from the east coast of Florida to the Carolinas around Tuesday. Some rain could graze the coastline of the Carolinas. Otherwise, the system and its heaviest rain should remain offshore.
The warm waters of the southwestern Atlantic Ocean could allow the system to strengthen further, but it is not projected to make another landfall in the United States.
"During the middle of next week, we expect the system to accelerate to the northeast and move away from the United States," Kottlowski said.
The system will track north of Bermuda at midweek, but it could still bring rough seas, gusty winds and drenching thunderstorms to the island nation.
"Even with the system well off to the northeast in the Atlantic Ocean, a lingering stream of tropical moisture will also allow heavy thunderstorms to persist across South Florida at midweek," Pydynowski said.
The impending tropical system's strength will depend on critical development factors.
"The water is sufficiently warm enough, so the strength of the system will be highly dependent on how much wind shear interacts with it," Kottlowski said.
Wind shear is a rapid change in direction and speed of air flow at different levels of the atmosphere. Wind shear can prevent a tropical system from forming or cause an organized tropical system to weaken.
The forward speed of the system will also affect its strength. A quicker track into Florida may not give the system enough time to intensify into the next tropical storm of the season.
"While Hurricane Alex formed during January 2016, it is probably more accurate to consider the system as the tail end of the 2015 season, rather than an early storm for the 2016 season," Kottlowski said. "We are not figuring Alex into the AccuWeather 2016 Atlantic hurricane season forecast as a result."
Craig Furlong ·
Gotta
chuckle at the comments, I live just outside Crescent City which is
half way between Jacksonville and Orlando on Hwy 17 and no hurricane or
TS has done any signifigant damage in over a hundred years. I just yawn.
1
Robin Cameron ·
Looks like LA is getting it worst then florida. I live in Tn and we are getting a good rain here :)
Dave Morris ·
DEBBIE
dropped nearly 28 inches of rain.-youll get 1/3rd that.Main threat in
flooded waters is Snakes and Gators.Sewer system back ups.
Katie O'Malley ·
How will central Florida fare?
Diana Clark Roskens ·
I
see you are either a meterologist or aspiring to be one. The weather
channel is always looking for people like you with a passion to inspire
mad rushes to the grocery store and home depot for supplies people
rarely need or use. lol. Hey Katie it's all good.....get some candles
and water. Eat your ice cream.
Lisa Anne Gasbarri Peghiny ·
A shame people act like disrespectable fools! Katie, I suspect a weak tropical system but don't rule out a tornado watch.
Gary VanDecar ·
Most
likely 2 to 4 inches of rain and now they're mentioning possibly quite a
few Tornadoes with this system from Central Florida south Yikes.
Judith A Baureis ·
Works at Elite Battlegrounds
The
one thing that always get me is (even up here in NJ) is the fact that
eeryone goes for foods u have to keep cold or frozen. Thats usually the
first thing to go, ELECTRIC and POWER (unless u have a generator). that
will feed your whole house like I have after Sandy hit up here.
Ralph Meyer ·
I
guess that's what makes you elite and better than "eeryone" else. But
this isn't about you. People in the path of the storm are more concerned
right now about losing their homes than hearing about your superiority
over the rest of us.
Coming across like Charley did . Here we go again
Everyone
is over reacting at this storm. In any case always be prepared with
plenty of fresh water and back up plans to go to if we lose power or
flooding. Simple as that....quick freaking and be prepared all season.
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